Those who aspire to high elected office in Australia would readily accept that setbacks are an inevitable aspect of the journey, indeed a near certainty. So Bill Shorten would have been under no illusions that Malcolm Turnbull's accession to the prime ministership last week would likely see him (and the ALP) reduced to supernumerary status – for at least as long as Mr Turnbull's electoral honeymoon lasted. He certainly would have anticipated his hitherto solid opinion poll ratings would evaporate – and that the departure of the hapless Tony Abbott (against whom Mr Shorten's performance had been almost exclusively measured) would see his own deficiencies as a leader examined more minutely.
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The expected poll reversal has arrived already: and it's worse than Labor might have hoped. Mr Shorten's preferred prime ministership rating has sunk to the lowest level of any party leader in the past six years while the opposition's share of the two-party preferred vote has fallen to 49 per cent, with the Coalition's jumping to 51 per cent.
Mr Shorten's launch of Labor's higher education policy in Melbourne on Monday – which he says will see an additional 20,000 students graduate in Australia each year – was relegated to the inside pages of the newspapers, with most giving prominence to the swearing-in of the Turnbull cabinet. After his policy turn at Monash University, Mr Shorten turned up on ABC TV's Q&A program where, to many observers, his weaknesses in tone, presentation and charisma were manifest.
As his budget in-reply speech last May showed, Mr Shorten's public utterances are not devoid of content, themes or ideas. But their merits tend to get lost in a delivery that's bland and uninspiring. Like Tony Abbott, Mr Shorten conveys the appearance of someone trying to project authority and authenticity but falling just short. And he has become the butt of jokes on television, a reputation no aspiring prime ministers should cultivate. But perhaps Mr Shorten's single biggest failing is his refusal to deliver Labor from its union overlords, a failure which could have severe repercussions if adverse findings arise from the royal commission into trade union corruption.
If Mr Shorten was not the rank-and-file's first choice to become Labor leader, his record in government (particularly in taking carriage of the national disability insurance scheme and turning into a reality) indicates someone of more than just average political abilities. And if Mr Turnbull's ascent represents a significant reversal of fortune, the shaky Australian economy may yet deliver Mr Shorten a realistic chance of becoming prime minister.
But with 12 months remaining until the election, perhaps less, Mr Shorten doesn't have the luxury of waiting for the more fancied runner to stumble. His approach has to be positive rather than negative, expansive rather than narrow. New policies will have to be sold with verve and conviction. It's a Herculean task, but one Mr Shorten has no option but to attempt, for Labor will not tolerate failure.
