The six-week midwinter parliamentary break that began on Thursday came just in time for Bill Shorten – and probably too soon for Tony Abbott. Trapped Br'er Rabbit-like in a tar baby of his past conduct at the AWU, and during the Labor Party's twin leadership crises under Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, the Opposition Leader appeared more lackadaisical than usual at the dispatch box. Nor did his front-bench team offer much in the way of covering fire. By contrast, the Prime Minister's confidence and bearing seem to blossom off the back of some national security partisanship that was brazen even by his standards. So commanding was Mr Abbott – and so listless the alternative prime minister – that an internal party email requesting that Coalition MPs update their photos with the Liberal leader quickly led to speculation that an early election might be called.
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First-term prime ministers routinely go to the polls ahead of time, and though Mr Abbott must be sorely tempted to back himself against an unconvincing opponent, there are reasons indicating he won't. One is that support for the Coalition in public opinion polling remains soft. Another is that the government no longer can claim justification for an early dissolution election, having had recent success in getting its legislation through the Senate. The biggest impediment to an early election, however, is that it will seriously desynchronise the timing of future Senate and House elections and increase the likelihood the Coalition (assuming it wins an early election) faces an unfriendly Senate in the future. August 2016 is the earliest date a House and half-Senate election can be held without seriously disrupting the election cycle, and with a lower house electoral redistribution still pending in NSW (one that that potentially threatens Liberal-National Party harmony), Mr Abbott has additional reasons to hold off.
That likelihood will soothe some of the more fevered brows within the ALP's party room. Other MPs, however, must be wondering when Mr Shorten intends to kick up a gear, or indeed whether he is capable of doing that. In his 20 months as Labor leader, Mr Shorten has demonstrated little assertiveness, either in the House or in public. His Budget in Reply speech last month was hailed by many as a positive sign of growth and maturity. But follow-through has been minimal – in part because of damaging assertions made at the Royal Commission into trade union corruption and governance regarding Mr Shorten's time at the Australian Workers Union. His central role in the toppling of both Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard, memories of which have re-kindled by the ABC TV docudrama The Killing Season, represents a further setback.
Changes to the way Labor appoints its federal parliamentary leader mean Mr Shorten very likely won't be going anywhere before the next election. But unless or until he starts delivering policy announcements with verve and energy, Labor's prospects for a return to government in 2017 under Mr Shorten's leadership appear unpromising. Mr Abbott's blatant partisanship on national security issues has accentuated that pessimistic outlook.
The prime minister has undoubtedly strengthened his hold on the Liberal Party leadership through such tactics, but such cynicism has arguably had a detrimental impact on Australia's counter-terrorism efforts. John Howard was criticised for his resort to dog-whistle politics, but compared with Mr Abbott's trumpeting on national security and citizenship, that approach seems positively refined. Mr Abbott's growing fondness for wrapping himself in the flag and for calling on critics to get on the side of Team Australia calls to mind Ambrose Bierce's definition of patriotism: combustible rubbish ready to the torch of any one ambitious to illuminate his name.
Outside of labelling Labor as weak on terrorism, there is little hint of any purpose to Mr Abbott's mission. Indeed, it is arguable that his bluster will help Islamic State's recruitment drive, here and overseas. The Coalition's abandonment of its economic narrative, together with the virtual disappearance from public view of Treasurer Joe Hockey, only underline Mr Abbott's cynicism.
For voters who despair of Mr Abbott's inability to abandon the habits of his student union days – and Labor's inability to rebut claims that it wants to roll out the red carpet for returning jihadist sympathisers – the midwinter break promises a respite. But only a brief one.
Correction: An earlier version of this story incorrectly stated that August 2017 is the earliest date at which a House of Representatives and half Senate election can be held without seriously disrupting the election cycle. The earliest date is August 2016.
