For a man who'd just committed of one of the most heinous of political crimes – ratting on his colleagues – Ian Macfarlane appeared composed, even jovial, after announcing on Thursday that he was quitting the Liberals to join the Nationals. Perhaps this was because the former industry and science minister regards himself as being "as National Party as anyone" – and because the switch had resuscitated his hopes of returning to the ministry. Whether the Liberals, and their leader, Malcolm Turnbull, are quite so relaxed and comfortable is another matter.
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Before becoming prime minister, Mr Turnbull gave undertakings that existing Coalition policies the Nationals held dear – including climate and marriage – would not change under his government. He also agreed to cede to the junior partner responsibility for water policy, a portfolio the Nationals had long coveted, and to support their push for competition law reform.
Ten weeks later, the Nationals have returned the favour by claiming a "very close friend" of the Prime Minister as one their own, amid hints they will seek to increase their cabinet representation as a result. Another Queensland Liberal MP, Scott Bucholtz, is also said to be weighing up whether to switch to the Nationals. Should he do so, a demand by the Nationals for another ministry seems certain.
Bruised egos and thwarted ambitions appear to be at the heart of pair's dissatisfaction with the Liberals. Mr Macfarlane was a senior and long-serving member of cabinet until Mr Turnbull's accession, and Mr Bucholtz the chief government whip. As an avowed Tony Abbott supporter, Mr Bucholtz's demotion to the backbench was not unexpected. The casting out of Mr Macfarlane into the wilderness, however, was not – least of all it seems by him. The day after Mr Abbott was dumped as leader, Mr Macfarlane told the Toowoomba Chronicle that "Malcolm and I have been very close for a long time and going right back to when he was leader of the opposition, so I'd be hopeful that that relationship would continue and I'll serve in whatever portfolio he asks me to serve in".
Mr Turnbull seems to have tried hard to soften the blow of Mr Macfarlane's dumping, with reports that he persuaded his friend that it would be in party's best interest if he stood aside to enable a fresh injection of blood into the ministry. Only on Thursday did it become became apparent that Mr Macfarlane must have been very reluctant indeed to take one for the party.
In an apparent sign of displeasure, Mr Turnbull has pulled out of a dinner he was scheduled to attend on Sunday in Toowomba (in Mr Macfarlane's electorate of Groom). Other Liberal Party MPs have been blunter, accusing Mr Macfarlane of gross disloyalty and selfishness. Given Mr Macfarlane was elected on a Liberal Party ticket, with the financial and logistical support of the party, these are not easy charges to dismiss. And the acrimony may well be intensified by the admission on Friday of Northern Territory Country Liberal Party MP Natasha Griggs that she was approached to switch to the Nationals.
The Liberals and Nationals (the successor to the Country Party of old) are far from natural allies, as historians and students of politics would know. Indeed, the friction (and on occasion enmity) between the two main non-Labor parties dates back as far the 1920s. The Country Party took government in Victoria on several occasions during the 1930-50s with Labor's support – which that state's Liberal Party has never forgotten or forgiven. Defections and enticements to change sides have been almost as frequent as decisions by the Nationals go their own way in opposition. An erosion of voter support for the Nationals in the 1980s and '90s prompted a more collegial approach – and even attempts at mergers, as in Queensland. But the turf wars have continued to smoulder, even at federal level. When Senator Julian McGaurin defected from the Nationals to the Liberals in 2006, the sense of betrayal (and schadenfreude) was as keenly felt then as it is now.
Had Mr Turnbull taken the precaution of offering Mr Macfarlane a sop to stand aside, its possible defection might have been averted. In that sense, the Prime Minister is vulnerable to accusations of poor judgment. But it's drawing a long bow to suggest it will intensify the conservative challenge to Mr Turnbull's authority within the Liberal Party. Most right-thinking people will see Mr Macfarlane's defection for what it is: an act of political self-conceit that no one saw coming.
