The resumption of Federal Parliament this week represents Opposition Leader Brendan Nelson's last chance to convince an increasingly unhappy and directionless Liberal Party that he remains the man best equipped to lead it to the next election. That, at least, is the optimistic view of Nelson's current position. The other, more realistic, assessment is that after months of terrible public opinion poll ratings, exacerbated by his uninspiring political style and populist manoeuvres, nothing can save Nelson's leadership.
No one can accuse Nelson of lacking energy or chutzpah in the 10 months he has held the job. His demand this week that the Government deliver a major economic statement on how it proposes to handle inflation, unemployment and sluggish growth was typically audacious, but his leadership remains characterised by shallowness and opportunism. Nelson has not grown in the job (difficult thought it is) let alone being able to establish his authority in the party room to the degree where he could put his own stamp on the party's policies. The difficulty is that the party itself remains undecided about whether to enshrine John Howard's political legacy, ditching only the more politically unsaleable items like industrial relations law and opposition to any immediate plans to combat climate change, or whether it should rebrand itself with policies less likely to be viewed by the public as unappetising leftovers from the Howard years.
For long-time Howard supporters like Nick Minchin and Tony Abbott, the reactionary first course was always to be preferred to the second more radical path especially when Peter Costello, their preferred candidate to succeed Howard, indicated he would not accept the job. Confronted with the possibility that Malcolm Turnbull might become leader and that he might airbrush Howard out of the Liberal picture, the Liberal right quickly embraced Nelson. Unfortunately for Nelson, they could not deliver the comfortable cushion of support in the party room that a leader needs if he is to survive the trials of guiding a shell-shocked party through the frustrations of opposition.
Nelson could, and did, shore up his position by embarking on a ''listening tour'' of Australia, and by cannily portraying the Government as ineffectual on the issue of rising fuel prices. If his promise to cut the rate of excise on petrol by 5c a litre was derided as opportunistic and irresponsible, it at least boosted his approval ratings from single digits to around 13per cent. But Nelson's confusion over whether to support or oppose a number of the Government's controversial budget measures, and the party's inability to decide, conclusively, what its position on climate change should be, saw the Opposition Leader's popularity slip noticeably again earlier this month.
Speculation that Costello is reconsidering his decision to quit politics (despite having said nothing publicly to indicate a change of mind) may have contributed to the further erosion of Nelson's public support. The Liberal Party has written off Nelson, and is moving to select a new leader probably Malcolm Turnbull.
Many in the parliamentary party are said to detest Turnbull for his arrogance, his wealth, and his ambition to lead the Liberals, as if such qualities were inimical to the achievement of high office. Malcolm Fraser was another politician condemned for his ambition and ruthless streak, but the Liberals practically deified him after he led the party to victory in the election December 1975. Some Liberal MPs, mostly on the right, fear Turnbull will dismantle the social and economic ideology of Howard perhaps even join forces with Labor in a push for a republic. Turnbull might be to the left of the party on social issues, but he is every bit the dry on economic policy. He might be disliked by those jealous of his rapid rise in the party, but few Liberals would argue Turnbull does not possess the energy, intellect and capacity for consensus-building that any successful political leader requires to rebuild a party and then win office.
The same kinds of argument could be used to support a possible Costello candidacy as well, though Costello, having served his 12 years as Howard's deputy, has accumulated more political baggage than Turnbull. Costello's continued failure to reiterate his retirement plans mean he has to be regarded as a contender when the leadership becomes vacant. If he is indeed intent on remaining in Parliament and running for the leadership, however, Costello's vacillation may prove costly. Abbott's effusive praise of Turnbull on an ABC-TV current affairs program suggests many in the party have lost patience and can wait no longer.
The only question now is the timing of any challenge. Given the crumbling foundations of Nelson's leadership, it will take only one more dismal opinion poll for the party's key factional powerbrokers to act. This can't come soon enough for the growing numbers of MPs who realise it was a mistake to choose Nelson as leader.
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