The multi-billion dollar question doing the rounds in Russell and other defence establishments on Wednesday was almost certainly "where are they going to get the money for that?"
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That was the obvious response to Defence Minister Richard Marles' disclosure the government will scrap local defence projects to free up funds for works with a more operational focus.
"We are taking $1.4 billion from planned enhancements to Defence facilities across Canberra and re-investing this in our operational bases, including northern base infrastructure such as those at RAAF bases Darwin, Townsville and Learmonth," he said.
While there was speculation a $1.25 billion upgrade to ADFA first mooted last November could have been on the hit list that has been ruled out.
Such a move would have been hard to justify given Mr Marles stressed the need to recruit additional ADF personnel as part of the 2024 National Defence Strategy: "We recognise the need for a fundamental transformation of Defence's recruitment and retention system," he said.
"Between 2020-2021 and 2022-2023 Defence achieved only 80 per cent of its uniformed recruiting requirements and, when combined with a strong external labour market draw for our people, this has resulted in a shortfall of 4400 personnel today".
That's a compelling argument to invest in ADFA, Duntroon, and the Australian Defence College - which play a crucial role in educating the future leaders of the three services.
So given $1.4 billion is a lot of money - even in the context of the defence budget - this is going to involve more than just a nip here and a tuck there.
It is understood that the big hit will be taken by the broader Canberra Defence Precinct, though details remain elusive. Watch this space.
Looking at the bigger picture the government's pivot away from "Fortress Australia" to a more mobile and forward-facing ADF with a significantly enhanced capability to project deadly force well beyond our shores seems eminently sensible.
Mr Marles is correct in saying that in today's strategic environment fending off an invasion by a foreign power is one of the least likely contingencies the ADF would ever have to face.
One reason for that is because Australia has a very broad moat. Any adversary planning to land significant forces on the mainland would have to transport hundreds of thousands of personnel and millions of tonnes of materiel over vast distances.
Given modern surveillance technology means this could not be done in secret any invasion fleet would be highly vulnerable to attacks by the type of ADF Mr Marles is determined to develop.
In such a scenario nuclear submarines, underwater drones and long range missiles would offer much greater deterrence than a small, albeit highly trained and well-equipped, land force. Nuclear submarines are, to coin a phrase, "alligators in the moat". Just the knowledge they are there can be enough to keep aggressors at bay.
That said it is unfortunate, given Mr Marles' admission Australia "no longer has the luxury of a 10 year window of strategic warning time for conflict" that the first US-built Virginia class submarine won't be operational until "the early 2030s". The ageing Collins class must keep on soldiering on.
The same criticism applies to much of what was announced on Wednesday, with the lion's share of the projected increase in defence spending not expected to take place for at least five years or more and some pundits saying the reshaped ADF won't be "fit for purpose" until 2031.
That is a long time for Australians to wait.
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