History says the Swans must win Thursday night's crunch game against high-flyers West Coast at Subiaco, or face missing the AFL finals for just the fourth time in 22 seasons.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
Friday night's one-point loss to Collingwood in Lance Franklin's 250th career game condemned Sydney to a third-straight loss for the first time since 1999, leaving last year's beaten grand finalists near the bottom of the table heading into the West Coast clash.
That game in Perth is followed by a derby blockbuster at the Sydney Cricket Ground against the GWS Giants in round five.
Not since the AFL introduced a top-eight finals system in 1994 has a team lost its first four games and recovered to play in September.
But it has been done after three opening losses, most recently by North Melbourne in 2007, who bounced back to finish fourth before bowing out in the preliminary final.
Melbourne (2006), Geelong (2004), Adelaide (2001) and the Swans (1999) are the other teams to have recovered from an 0-3 start and still made finals in the AFL era.
Carlton lost their first three matches in 2013 and finished ninth, but were boosted into the finals after Essendon were stripped of their competition points that year as part of the supplements scandal.
The Swans would have beaten Collingwood on Friday night were it not for an errant first quarter where Sydney managed just two inside 50s, from which point they were always playing catch-up.
They managed to stick their noses in front late in the fourth term thanks to a Josh Kennedy snapped behind, but Collingwood had the last laugh as Will Hoskin-Elliott kicked a goal from the boundary line.
Nic Newman's late goal reduced the margin to a point, but the siren snuffed out the Swans' comeback.
Yet there are positive signs emerging amid Sydney's on-field struggles.
Jordan Dawson made his debut against Collingwood, becoming the fifth player to do so already this season for Sydney, following Oliver Florent, Robbie Fox, Will Hayward and Newman.
Hayward kicked three goals against the Magpies, while Florent and Fox also had an impact on the scoreboard.
"The good thing is I think we've found some players that may not have got an opportunity had everyone been fit," Swans assistant coach Stuart Dew said.
"It's been good for Hayward, Fox, Florent, Foote, those types of players get a bit of a look in and get a chance to cement themselves in the side.
"It's pretty exciting from that point of view, it's just been a shame we haven't been able to get a win for them."
Sydney have been forced to play their youngsters due to early season misfortune and a mounting injury toll.
Vice-captain Dane Rampe will miss about two months with the fractured arm he suffered in a morning run after round one.
Isaac Heeney continues to battle back from glandular fever, while Jarrad McVeigh, Kirt Tippett, Tom Papley and Gary Rohan are all in the casualty ward after playing in last year's grand final.
