The ACT's predicted budget surplus has narrowed yet again and looks likely to disappear altogether when a series of so-far unfunded projects are included in the figures.
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Under Treasurer David Nicol released the pre-election budget update on Thursday. It shows a surplus of just $16 million in 2018-19. This year's deficit has worsened since announced in June, to an expected $205 million in the negative.
The update lists a series of projects that are yet to appear in the budget at all, including design and planning of stage 2 of the government's light rail line, which is to go across Commonwealth Avenue to Woden. While the government has chosen Woden as its preferred route, Mr Nicol's update said it has not formally agreed to a business case, nor feasibility studies, design or construction. As a result, none of that work is included in budget or forward estimates.
Nor has any money been included for construction of the City to the Lake project, other than $10 million for Point Park and 150 metres of boardwalk at West Basin. The government plans a boardwalk all the way around the edge of a partially reclaimed lakefront at West Basin, along with a new swimming pool on the lake, a stadium, a convention centre and major changes to Parkes Way. No construction work appears in the next four years of budget forward estimates.
No extra funding has been included to pay for running the new hospital being built at the University of Canberra, but Mr Nicol points out that there is a $100 million provision in 2019-20 for extra health spending, so has the flexibility to pay for the hospital running costs.
As Treasurer and Chief Minister, Andrew Barr has consistently pushed out or reduced his promised surplus. In Labor's first budget after the last election, it promised a surplus by 2015-16. In the next budget (2014-15), the surplus was pushed out to 2017-18. In the 2015-16 budget, the surplus was pushed back again, to 2018-19.
This year's budget still predicted a surplus in 2018-19, but it had dropped from $50 million to $33 million, essentially a balanced budget. Now, it has been pared back further, to $16 million.
Mr Nicol's update, which is prepared by Treasury in the caretaker period without input from government, also point to a long list of programs whose funding runs out this year, amounting to $43.2 million. If funding is continued, that, too will hit future budgets.
Those programs including weed and pest control ($700,000), more money from the Throughcare prison rehabilitation program ($1.4 million), support for homelessness ($1.5 million), cleaning and maintenance of suburbs ($1 million), bulky waste pick-ups for seniors ($400,000), extra support and transport for students with disabilities ($2.9 million), and many more.
The budget update includes new spending that has been announced since June, including money for green waste bins, costing $1.1 million this year and rising to $7.6 million a year by 2019-10 (offset by $1.3 million a year in revenue from the $50 fee charged to users).
The new rapid bus routes announced recently cost $13.9 million by 2019-20. The Taskforce Nemesis anti-bikie program costs $1.3 million this year and rising. Changes to workers' compensation cost more than $14 million a year, and the medical cannabis scheme at $300,000 in the first years.
The Commissioner for International Engagement position, to which Liberal Brendan Smyth was appointed in July, has been costed at zero, with the $300,000 salary package and other costs to be absorbed.
Mr Nicol's update also lists capital projects for which design and feasibility studies have been done, but no funding has yet been provided - including projects described as "Throsby multisport complex", "Molonglo to the city highway", Kingston foreshore parking, and improvements to Fairbairn Park for motorsports. The budget does include $100 million a year of unassigned money for future infrastructure.
Mr Nicol said the main change to this year's deficit, now forecast at $205 million, was an adjustment to the superannuation liability. In the forward years, some technical adjustments and government decisions had hit the result.
Chief Minister Andrew Barr said the update showed "a clear and credible path" to surplus, with revenue and spending on track. The budget position showed Labor's strong management of the economy, with the second lowest unemployment rate in the country and the strongest employment growth.
