The ACT government dismissed a second report urging it to build a vastly larger prison, instead cutting costs and pushing ahead with a 300-bed jail that is now facing chronic overcrowding issues.
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The government this month was revealed to have buried a secret 2001 report, known as the Walker report, suggesting its $128 million Alexander Maconochie Centre would be full almost as soon as it opened in 2009.
The government instead used Treasury and Corrections to produce its own, vastly lower forecasts of prisoner numbers, which it then used to justify building a smaller, cheaper prison.
The prison faced capacity pressures within 20 months, and the then corrections minister Simon Corbell publicly defended the decision, stating the government's ''most pessimistic projection'' had predicted just 275 prisoners by 2042.
But confidential documents, obtained under freedom of information laws, show a second report, produced by a separate consultant, urged the government to build the prison to a total capacity of 480.
That report was produced by Rengain Consulting in 2001 and was handed to the government after the Walker report.
The prison is now struggling with critical overcrowding issues, and authorities have been forced to push more bunk beds into cottages and cells to temporarily expand the prison's capacity to 366.
Opposition Leader Jeremy Hanson said it was clear the government had ignored a range of expert advice on capacity to try to cut the budget and deliver the jail before the 2008 election.
''It's clear that the government has ignored a range of expert advice,'' Mr Hanson said. ''They have consistently told the community that the prison size would be adequate. Really what's happened is they've lied to us and the community has been conned by the government.''
Corrections Minister Shane Rattenbury, who was not in office during the AMC's planning, said he was focused on dealing with the capacity problems in the immediate future. He said the recent increase to 366 beds had alleviated some pressure on the jail.
The AMC needs roughly 15 per cent of its beds kept free to maintain flexibility, but reached a record high of 340 inmates earlier this month.
''Due to the good work of ACT Corrective Services, all detainees have been accommodated at the AMC and there has been no need to place detainees elsewhere within the ACT or interstate,'' he said.
ACT criminologist David Biles said the Rengain report appeared to have hit the mark in its recommendation for a 480-bed prison.
Mr Biles said he could not imagine how the government had come up with its own low estimates of prisoner numbers in the face of two separate sets of higher prisoner projections.
''Basically Walker was extremely cautious and underestimated, and that [projection of prisoner numbers] has been reduced even further,'' he said.
Mr Biles said it now appeared three separate but neighbouring prisons should have been built to house different prisoner types, including remandees, sentenced prisoners, women and men.
He said that would give more flexibility in dealing with high numbers of prisoners.
The government is expected to begin meetings to canvass options for dealing with the overcrowding crisis in the next week.
