If an election were to have been held on Saturday Anthony Albanese could have been Prime Minister-elect by now.
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That's one conclusion to be drawn from the first major poll of 2020; the first since Scott Morrison's decision to go to Hawaii while the nation was on the cusp of a fire crisis.
Both the PM and his government have taken a big hit in support since December.
The Coalition's two-party preferred vote slipped from 52 to 49 according to the Newspoll published in The Australian on Monday. Labor's strengthened from 48 to 51.
While, as last May's surprise result reminded us, it is dangerous to draw too many conclusions from polling, this is significant.
Support for Morrison, who many credit as the "X-factor" that got the LNP across the line, has fallen even more sharply.
Just over a month ago 48 per cent of those polled rated him as "the better prime minister" compared to 34 per cent for Albanese. Now 43 per cent say Albanese would make the better prime minister compared to 39 per cent for Morrison.
While conservatives have been quick to point out electoral support for the government has not collapsed as badly as support for Morrison, this is irrelevant.
When you only have a two seat majority in the lower house it doesn't take much to send you to the other side of the chamber.
It is the first time in years a Labor opposition leader has outpolled a Liberal as preferred PM.
All of the above must be a massive wake-up call to a government which has begun 2020 on the ropes. It is the first time in years a Labor opposition leader has outpolled a Liberal as preferred Prime Minister.
This reflects much more than unrest about Morrison's holiday or flat-footed response to the bushfire crisis on his return.
If the next election is a referendum on climate change many people are of the view the Coalition aren't the people you want at the wheel when large chunks of the national estate are going up in smoke.
Numerous letters to the editor and comment pieces in this and other media outlets have made the point climate change is real, human activity is contributing to it, that this government was warned of the likely consequences and that it did not prepare for them.
The position is not irreversible, however. As a result of last year's election win Morrison is in the strongest position of any Coalition leader since John Howard.
When Howard faced his own trial in the wake of the Port Arthur massacre he used the authority derived from the landslide victory in 1996 to stare down the troglodytes.
Morrison needs to do the same. This involves much more than belatedly dealing with issues arising from the bushfire emergency.
Voters want comprehensive plans to prepare for similar events in future years and a commitment to meaningful energy and climate change policies.
Australia has the sympathy and support of the world right now. This will evaporate if we are seen to have been the authors of our own misfortunes. That perception was heightened by Angus Taylor's antics at the Madrid climate conference.
Morrison was strongly backing the National Energy Guarantee proposal, which was axed when Malcolm Turnbull was ousted as Prime Minister a few weeks later, as late as August 2, 2018.
It was a good idea then and is probably an even better idea now. If Morrison was willing to put the NEG back onto the table it would likely attract bipartisan support from the ALP and break the energy policy deadlock.
This would also show the government is listening to the people and, after years of inaction and wasted opportunities, now wants to put things to rights.
