COVID-19 Informer: Second wave of coronavirus could be worse than the first say experts

In the US, the director of the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention said a second wave of the coronavirus outbreak could be worse than the one engulfing the States now.

And with the nation's death toll now beyond 45,000, that is a terrifying prospect.

"There's a possibility that the assault of the virus on our nation next winter will actually be even more difficult than the one we just went through," CDC Director Robert Redfield told the Washington Post.

Redfield said the US was fortunate the coronavirus did not arrive as the flu season hit its peak: "It could have been really, really, really, really difficult in terms of health capacity".

But the CDC director said his concerns about a second wave have largely fallen on deaf ears.

"When I've said this to others, they kind of put their head back. They don't understand what I mean."

Infectious disease experts and mathematicians working on the virus modelling agree social distancing measures play a huge role in coralling the spread of the virus. Ongoing surveillance and testing will be needed to detect and isolate any new cases as control measures are unwound, one Australian report insisted.

Justin Lessler, an associate professor of epidemiology at Johns Hopkins University, wrote strikingly for the Washington Post in March: "Epidemics are like fires. When fuel is plentiful, they rage uncontrollably, and when it is scarce, they smoulder slowly".

And it is that smouldering that has Italy wary of the decision it faces to lift its two-month lockdown.

By the end of this week, Prime Minister Giuseppe Conte will announce a plan to gradually lift the stringent lockdown measures in place since March 10.

Earlier this month, the head of the country's top health agency likened Italy to a "pilot program" for other nations as they grapple with the various stages of the pandemic.

"There are no studies or literature on this," the nation's most senior health official Silvio Brusaferro said.

In another interview he said: "The keyword will be 'coexistence' with the virus."

Overnight the message was similar in the UK, where the Chief Medical Officer warned Brits to get used to social distancing because the likelihood finding vaccine within next 12 months was "incredibly small".

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