ACT among best placed to rebound from the virus crisis

The ACT has been ranked just behind Victoria and Tasmania as the nation's third best-performing economy by CommSec, boasting the nation's strongest labour market, high investment and strong housing finance.

The assessment, based on eight key economic readings in the first three months of the year, show how well positioned each of the states and territories were when tough restrictions to slow the spread of the COVID-19 virus came into force in March.

The CommSec report shows ACT was leading the nation in three of the eight indicators, including an 11-year low trend unemployment rate, decade-high equipment investment and home loans 36 per cent greater than the long-term average.

Mr James said in recent years the ACT had consistently been among the top four best performing economies in the country and appeared well placed for any economic rebound.

"You would have to say the ACT went into the period in pretty strong shape," Mr James said.

"We have got eight indicators. The ACT is number one on three of those indicators."

Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe has warned of a severe national downturn, predicting that output will contract by 10 per cent in the first half of the year and the number of hours work will plunge by 20 per cent.

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The government has revealed more than 800,000 have applied for JobSeeker payments while more than 400,000 firms employing about 2.4 million workers have enrolled in the $130 billion JobKeeper wage subsidy scheme.

But despite the dire short-term outlook, Dr Lowe said that if current restrictions could be progressively eased in the next two or three months the economy would begin to "bounce back" from the September quarter.

"If this is how things play out, the economy could be expected to grow very strongly next year, with GDP growth of perhaps six to seven per cent," he said.

The Commonwealth Bank Group shares expectations of a recovery, but suggests it will be more gradual than the central bank expects.

The group forecasts that data will show national output shrank by 0.4 per cent in the March quarter and will plummet by 8.5 per cent in the June quarter before a 0.5 per cent increase in the September quarter and 3.4 per cent growth in the last three months of the year.

Mr James said the ACT was better placed than many to benefit from the recovery.

"Services Australia and the ATO are putting on staff at the moment so it may be that the job market holds up a bit better in the ACT than some of the other state and territory economies," he said.

"Given that the ACT has got very much a professional population [there is a] better chance of people being able to [continue to] do that activity from home."

But he warned that slowing population growth would be an area of vulnerability for the territory's economy.

Mr James said even before restrictions came into force the number migrating to the ACT had been slowing, which would weigh on important sectors.

"Home sales, home construction and the like, they are the ones who may be starting to see some early signs of weakness," the CommSec economist said. "That is the area of concern down the track."

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