Virgin's future remains in doubt

That has to be some comfort for the 10,000 staff whose lives were thrown into turmoil almost five months ago.

The process still has a long way to run however. There is no guarantee that when a new owner is announced everybody's jobs will be restored.

While the name, and many of the assets, will almost certainly be retained by new owners, there is no reason to expect that the pre-coronavirus business model will suddenly spring back into place.

Given the turmoil within the aviation industry, the strength of Qantas, and the fact we are months away from the resumption off domestic flights at anything approaching pre-pandemic levels, baby steps are the best investors, and staff, can hope for until mid-2021 at the earliest.

It is far too soon to be speculating on whether or not international flights will ever resume, where the airline will be based, how many planes it will keep, and how many people it will employ.

One thing that is almost certain however is that the new owners, whoever they turn out to be, will be quick to go cap-in-hand to the Australian government for the largest assistance package they can secure.

While it is a given the $1.4 billion sought by current owners will never be forthcoming, that doesn't mean that a lesser amount might not be forthcoming.

There is also the possibility of exploiting the rivalries between various state governments over where the company would be based to rustle up an extra $200 million or $300 million.

We already know that Queensland is willing to cough up cash to retain the company's headquarters, and that Victoria is willing to consider assistance if it were to relocate.

The situation, too say the least, is highly fluid. No outcomes are certain.

All that is known for sure right now is that, despite having lost more than a billion dollars in the past decade, the debt-ridden company is considered sufficiently viable to have attracted the interest of some significant potential investors.

It is worth noting that two of these, the surprise bidders Cyrus Capital, and Bain Capital, have links to Virgin founder, and current Virgin Australia part-owner, Sir Richard Branson.

Both are investment companies. Bain Capital has a stake in Virgin Cruises and Cyrus Capital was an investor in Virgin America when that company was founded in 2005.

The other two favoured bidders are Indigo Partners, an Arizona-based low-cost airline operator, and BGH Capital which has teamed up with Australian Super and Singapore's Temasek Holdings to try its luck.

Indigo's inclusion on the shortlist has come as a surprise to some given two of its companies, Frontier Airlines and Wizz Air, are currently in receipt of US government assistance in order to survive.

The word is that in the event Indigo was to succeed it would take Virgin back to its origins as a low-cost "Virgin Blue" style operation.

That would likely lead to significant staff reductions and changes to the composition of the fleet.

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While the news that Virgin will most probably survive is welcome it is still too early to be breaking out the bunting and champagne.

The only way Australians, including Canberrans, can be assured of a competitive air travel market, is if new owners are committed to a genuinely national service; not just the lucrative Melbourne, Sydney and Brisbane routes.