Prime Minister Scott Morrison's high-profile announcement of a cyber attack was chiefly about sending a message to China, a senior analyst with the Australian Strategic Policy Institute believes.
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Mr Morrison hadn't cited a specific event, instead talking in general terms about a cyber campaign that had been occurring over months or years, Tom Uren said, referring to a disconnect between Mr Morrison's words and his behaviour.
The fact he had called Opposition Leader Anthony Albanese and briefed state premiers suggested something had triggered the announcement, but his failure to detail specifics suggested the trigger might have been less immediate and significant than it seemed.
The announcement had two audiences. One was the domestic cyber security audience, for whom it would make a big difference in board rooms, giving cyber security chiefs "a licence to knock on your boss's door and say, 'All those things I said were important, I think we should do them now'."
The other audience was China.
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"The prime minister is standing there calling an emergency press conference and his minister of defence is standing next to him. It says, 'Hey, we're taking this seriously'. That's what I think the point of the press conference was," Mr Uren said.
"He actually looked pretty serious standing up there."
Mr Uren, from the institute's International Cyber Policy Centre and formerly a Defence employee, dismissed the idea that Russia or North Korea was the source of the attacks.
"It's extremely unlikely to be Russia or North Korea. Why would they bother? It takes time and effort to do these campaigns. You really have to have a motivation," he said.
"That basically leaves China. China's got form and capacity and has done it before."
As to China's motivation, Mr Uren said the country had used industrial espionage to get advanced manufacturing techniques in the past and in the context of COVID-19, direct knowledge of useful vaccines or drugs would be a huge advantage
"They're actually under tremendous pressure because of COVID-19. One of their real worries is that there's domestic unrest - if there's a whole lot of people unemployed because of the collapse of the global economy that's a huge problem, so they're looking for solutions rather than looking for retribution," he said.
"They're looking to espionage as a way to solve their problems. That results in them stealing stuff from us."
Kirsten Lawson
It's about the truth for me. That means asking questions. Then asking more questions. On the best days, we get answers.
It's about the truth for me. That means asking questions. Then asking more questions. On the best days, we get answers.
