The Liberals won't commit to Woden light rail, so will the 2016 election come back to haunt them?

In 2016, Labor won what was dubbed a referendum on light rail. The party was particularly successful in the Gungahlin-based seat of Yerrabi, where eight of Labor's top 10 booths were located.

No surprises there - it was the primary beneficiary of Labor's blue ribbon election promise in light rail stage one. Chief Minister Andrew Barr would be more than happy to run another light rail election.

For many, this fact makes the Liberals' refusal to back the city-to-Woden line particularly perplexing.

They want to make the election about the cost of living, but by not committing to continuing the work on stage two of light rail, they could risk de-railing their message.

The Liberals say they want to extend the network, but would decide what the next route should be after conducting an independent study.

Transport spokeswoman Candice Burch says the party hears a lot of feedback that Belconnen to Airport should be the next leg. It means all the work done on the city-to-Woden line so far could be thrown down the drain, and construction timelines delayed significantly.

Woden - and the seat of Murrumbidgee - will be a central battleground in the October election. The Liberals must pick up an extra member in that seat to have a chance of forming government.

The Liberals' decision not to neutralise the light rail issue suggests they believe Woden residents will not vote based on the tram.

It is true Woden cannot be seen through the same lens as Gungahlin. Unlike Gungahlin, it is a relatively strong area for the Liberals. It also has not had the same congestion issues crying out to be fixed as Gungahlin had in 2016.

There are also real questions to be asked about the speed of light rail in Woden, with a journey predicted to take up to 30 minutes compared to 15 minutes on some express buses.

The Liberals may have misjudged the public's support for light rail in 2016 when they pledged to ditch the project before. But at least voters knew what their party's policy was.

There are very genuine questions about whether Woden would be the best next stage. A Belconnen line would be far less costly and complicated. And they have a genuine point when they say the government has lacked transparency.

The problem for voters going into this election is they don't really know whether a Liberal government would extend the system at all.

There have been no dollar announcements, and no real vision for their version of light rail.

Just a commitment to do an independent analysis. And we all know "independent reports" from government are not always as independent as the name suggests.