Who is ACT Labor leader Andrew Barr's successor?

Who could take Andrew Barr's spot as the leader?

If he loses, Barr has made it clear he'll make way for someone else to take the party's top job.

But there have also been lingering questions about whether he would see the term through if Labor wins.

Barr has maintained he plans to stick it out (pending any family or health emergency).

But the hot contest among Labor candidates in his seat of Kurrajong suggests some could be running in the hope his seat becomes vacant in some part of the next four years.

Former Barr-advisor Jacob Ingram has been campaigning non-stop for almost a year.

Meanwhile, CMFEU-backed CPSU ACT secretary Maddy Northam has some heavyweight backing from Senator Katy Gallagher.

It is true there's an outside chance Labor or the Greens could take another member from the Liberals in that seat.

It has become more progressive from a redistribution, and Liberal Candice Burch would be the most likely casualty.

But it remains, at best, an outside shot.

So it leaves the question - who is Barr's most likely successor, and does the party have the talent to fill that hole?

Up until 2019, Barr's logical successor was Meegan Fitzharris. She held two high-profile ministerial portfolios - health and transport - and had a warmth and likability that has evaded many of the current members.

She was extremely popular in her seat of Yerrabi, raking in the second highest individual Labor vote after Barr.

But she suddenly quit in 2019, leaving a big hole in the party's talent department.

However, it did make way to develop a few potential future leaders - the right's Chris Steel and the left's Rachel Stephen-Smith.

Both appear to be the strongest contenders.

Of course the logical successor for Barr would be deputy Chief Minister Yvette Berry.

She may have the support of the left for the top job and is among the most experienced members of cabinet.

But there is a real uncertainty about how she would deal with the pressures of the top job, coming across as gaffe-prone to say the least.

The government has been mostly lauded for its response to the coronavirus pandemic, striking a balance between public health and economic recovery.

But it was Berry's handling of the schools closures early on in the pandemic that caused the most widespread public backlash.

And for good reason - it featured confusing messaging and contradictory statements.

Then there is Steel - a close Barr associate and the right's most likely next candidate for chief minister.

In his mid-30s, Steel is young and relatively inexperienced, entering the Assembly in 2016. At times he still appears wooden and unsure of himself.

He took over the transport portfolio from Fitzharris in 2019 during challenging times when the disastrous new bus network threatened to derail the government's messaging and campaign.

Steel has managed to steady the ship and probably neutralised the issue just enough in time for the election.

Stephen-Smith has emerged as the left's top contender, on merit at least, finding her feet as a minister during the coronavirus crisis.

She was promoted straight to the ministry when she was elected in 2016, but has come into prominence since taking the health portfolio from Fitzharris.

After a nervous start, she has come to shine in her role during the pandemic and appears more confident and consultative.

The right's Tara Cheyne, a backbencher, was probably the most unlucky MLA during the reshuffle caused by Fitzharris' departure.

Despite being the logical next choice, the need for a minister in the important seat of Yerrabi and one from the party's left faction meant she missed out in favour of the low profile Suzanne Orr.

There is clearly a fear amidst the party of what life without Barr would look like.

Many simply don't believe they have the depth of talent necessary.

Unlike the 2016 election, this time around it's unlikely Labor will gain any new blood.

It would require tossing out an incumbent or picking up an extra seat.

Labor is an outside chance of picking up a third seat from the Liberals in Kurrajong. The party has also claimed it's in with a chance to get a third seat in Brindabella, but that also looks unlikely in reality.

If an incumbent were to be replaced by a new Labor member the most likely seat could be Brindabella, where Mick Gentleman and Joy Burch faced a tough pre-selection battle, coming in second and third.

Unaligned candidate Taimus Werner-Gibbings came in miles ahead of them during the pre-selection vote.

Burch and Gentleman had faced calls to depart to make way for some new "fresh" talent to regenerate Labor.

There were even some murmurings among the more disaffected members that it would be better for Labor to lose the election so it could have some generational change.

So going into Saturday's election, ACT Labor's biggest long-term challenge may not actually be at the ballot box.