Thousands of south-west Victorian jobs linked to tourism could be lost by mid-2021 due to the coronavirus pandemic, new data reveals.
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Great Ocean Road Regional Tourism has projected two scenarios where a maximum of between 5000 to 6400 jobs could go in the region by June 2021.
A report says a "more positive scenario" of up to 5000 job losses would require state borders opened by Christmas, no further stage four lockdown and international borders open by April.
Under that scenario in Warrnambool up to 920 jobs could be lost, 434 in Moyne, 356 in Corangamite and 346 in Glenelg.
Higher job losses would occur in the Surf Coast Shire, where 2000 jobs could go, and 935 in Colac Otway Shire.
The report is based on job numbers in 2018-19 and predicts many of those jobs could return by 2022-23 under the more positive scenario.
It also points out that Warrnambool, Moyne and Corangamite shires are the most dependent on international and interstate overnight visitation, with shires further east taking in bigger numbers of day-trippers.
GORT chair Wayne Kayler-Thomson said the the board was "not surprised by the gravity" of the possible job losses but believed there was optimism with the region's usually peak tourist season ahead.
"The region has always recovered very quickly. The difference here is we have an induced recession. We need to focus on people coming here to stay," Mr Kayler-Thomson said.
"It's the pent up demand ... and particularly coming into the summer it's the regions most popular time."
He said accelerating $108 million in promised infrastructure spending for the Twelve Apostles Precinct Master Plan was a priority for recovery, but believed a further $100 million could transform the drawcard into a "world class" precinct.
The report also says 200 tourism dependent businesses in the region could disappear in the six council areas by mid next year.
"(They) are at risk of staying in business, or increasing debt," Mr Kayler-Thomson said.
GORT is preparing to send postcard packs to every address in the region aimed at encouraging recipients to invite loved ones from outside the region for an overnight stay.
"The campaign we have launched encouraged people to stay in the region, Corangamite, Warrnambool, Moyne and Glenelg will hopefully benefit the most," Mr Kayler-Thomson said.
He said it could benefit the region if state borders remained closed for some time, but Melbourne residents were allowed to visit regional Victoria.
"There will be more from Melbourne wanting to travel into the region."
Jackson Graham
Jackson is a reporter for The Standard.
Jackson is a reporter for The Standard.
