Several hard facts show why change is needed at public service's highest levels

Speculation on the likely movements of department secretaries began in the days before Mr Morrison announced his new ministry. Until he details the changes to come in the public service, the refreshed line-up of cabinet ministers simply fuels the gossip.

The guessing games are based on some obvious, hard facts about the senior ranks of the bureaucracy.

The Attorney-General's Department remains without a secretary since Chris Moraitis moved to the Office of the Special Investigator in December. Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade secretary Frances Adamson's term is due to expire in July. There's an appetite in government for stability on at least one front: Michele Bruniges was recently appointed for another two years leading the Department of Education, Skills and Employment.

Other factors are less certain but should not be discounted. Peter Dutton, who has worked closely with senior public servant Mike Pezzullo for six years, may want to bring the Home Affairs secretary with him to his new Defence portfolio. Mr Pezzullo has a long association with the Defence Department and has been at Home Affairs for three years - or approaching seven, if you count his time leading the Department of Immigration and Border Protection.

After his new ministry was announced, Mr Dutton was glowing in his comments about senior bureaucrats working in his former portfolio, including Mr Pezzullo. The praise is probably just that and hints at nothing.

Several other secretaries may desire change as they approach or long surpass four years in their jobs. Greg Moriarty (Defence), Rosemary Huxtable (Finance) and Kathryn Campbell (Social Services) may be in that camp. Ministers, and the Prime Minister, may also believe it is time to thrust change upon them, and their departments.

One speculative news report also raised the possibility that secretary of the Department of the Prime Minister and Cabinet, Phil Gaetjens, is contemplating retirement this year. Asked about Mr Gaetjens' intentions on Tuesday, the department did not answer directly. His three-year term began in September 2019.

The departure of the public service's top bureaucrat would raise a question for Mr Morrison as he contemplates another possible term as Prime Minister after the next election.

Of all the senior public servants, which one would he prefer to work most closely with, and who would he trust to coordinate his agenda through the public service?

Former senior public servants believe a secretary reshuffle likely won't follow the cabinet changes right away.

New Home Affairs Minister Karen Andrews has a complex portfolio to get across and will probably welcome Mr Pezzullo's experience as she learns the brief. Mr Dutton will similarly benefit from stability in his new department's senior ranks.

All the discussion about how the senior ranks of the public service will change ignores the question that deserves most attention: why they should change.

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Some hard and unfortunate facts give the answer. Let's hope the Morrison government's new cabinet considers them.

First: Of the 14 department secretaries, only five are women.

The Morrison government ended gender parity in the most senior ranks of the public service, the balance having finally been achieved under Prime Minister Malcolm Turnbull with the appointment of Veterans' Affairs secretary Liz Cosson in 2018.

A majority of departmental secretaries who lost their jobs when Mr Morrison reduced the number of departments from 18 to 14 in late 2019 were women.

Finally, despite the imbalance in favour of men at the secretary level, the latest public numbers show that 60 per cent of Commonwealth public servants are women.

These facts all raise questions that need answering. If the Prime Minister truly believes in the importance of a gender lens on public policy, he should look further than increasing female representation in cabinet - although that's an important first step.

Whatever else happens in the next reshuffle of department secretaries, the government must restore gender balance at the most senior ranks of the public service. That will strengthen the gender lens on the bureaucracy's work delivering policy advice and services.

As Mr Morrison demonstrated when he ended the public service careers of five secretaries in late 2019, it's something within his direct control.