Write off Richmond Tigers at your own peril

At 3-3 and still ensconced inside the top eight, it's hardly panic stations yet for the Tigers. But three losses from the past four games is pretty rare territory. And you can expect the murmurs about their form to become more of a dull roar should they drop another game this week.

It just so happens that this week's opponent is arguably the toughest they could be coming up against, too - a Western Bulldogs side riding high on confidence, undefeated at the top of the ladder and fresh off a barnstorming nine-goal final term against Greater Western Sydney.

What's more, Richmond will be going in on the big Friday night stage without the peerless Dustin Martin, ruled out with concussion, and two critical onballers in Kane Lambert and Dion Prestia. This might well be one of the few games in recent years in which the Tigers haven't started favourites. And if the result does run true to those odds and recent form, Richmond will officially be in a spot it hasn't for more than four years.

Four losses from five games would be its most protracted run of outs since the Tigers lost four games in a row between rounds six and nine in 2017. That's just on four years. Even then, three of those defeats were by less than a kick, not the 45 and 34-point beltings two of these recent losses have been.

Yet even if Richmond does lose to the red-hot Bulldogs, I'm certainly not ready to jump off the bandwagon. And there's some pretty good reasons no-one else should either.

In each of the three years the Tigers have won the flag, they've had a major hiccup or two. And subsequent events each time should be instructive now. What happened after that potentially heart-breaking string of three losses by just five, two and three points in 2017? Far from become disheartened, the Tigers steeled themselves and became a better side, winning 13 of their last 16 games and nine of the last 10 on the way to their first premiership in 37 years.

In retrospect, 2019 is regularly seen as Richmond at its most dominant, thanks largely to its thumping 89-point grand final win over Greater Western Sydney.

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What is largely forgotten is that even past the halfway mark of that same season, the Tigers were hardly setting the world on fire; only 7-6 after 13 rounds and just inside the top eight. And the next chapter? Richmond bulldozed everyone in its path with 12-straight wins, the 12th that grand final whitewash.

Again last year, the Tigers had won only six of their first 11 games. What followed? Nine victories from the last 10.

This is a side that apart from its talent and system, has developed a real streak of mental toughness. It knows its capabilities even when the situation is far from rosy. And it is also one which has mastered the art of peaking at the right time.

Like now, Richmond has also dealt with its share of injuries in those other seasons. But its pressure-based game style is so simple but effective, and so well-drilled, that time and again it has been able to replace big names with lesser lights who have nonetheless performed a role to keep the ship afloat until the stars returned. Some of those, like Jayden Short, Liam Baker, Noah Balta and now it seems Jake Aarts, have done it so well they have ended up becoming permanent parts of the best 22.

At the heart of Richmond's style is commitment to work hard defensively. That's not just about winning the contested ball, but the discipline to work hard off the ball with defensive running, the greater the numbers zeroing in on opponents with the ball, the greater the pressure, and the greater the chance of a turnover.

Those turnovers inevitably land with players wearing a yellow-and-black jumper, most notably defenders like Dylan Grimes and David Astbury, but also midfield and in the forward 50. Because one thing no-one does like Richmond is positioning - a favourite Tiger mantra is "position not possession". Those sorts of attributes can come to the fore whether individuals within the system are in peak form with the actual football or not. Needless to say, it's a focus which also lends itself perfectly to finals football. Perhaps Richmond already has made it hard for itself to reach the top four come September. But does it need to? Its rare qualifying final loss last season to Brisbane meant the Tigers had to do it the hard way. They did so in style.

In my time watching football, I've seen few sides who look as reliable a chance of continuing to enjoy success. The Tigers aren't getting too old yet, West Coast, Geelong and St Kilda all with older playing lists with more experience. They play an uncomplicated brand which doesn't fatigue them mentally. Perhaps most significantly, they keep their best for when it's most needed. We're not seeing that best at the moment. But it is still April - early days indeed.

I think there's every chance Richmond could lose to the Doggies on Friday night, and that we'll see a flood of "end of an era" type speculation. I'm going to take it all with a grain of salt. And when September finally rolls around, don't say I didn't warn you.