Australia's Olympic team boss calls it "swings and roundabouts".
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
But Australia's chef de mission Ian Chesterman isn't sure how wild of a ride the Tokyo Olympics will be.
While much of the sporting world was locked down because of the coronavirus pandemic, most of Australia's athletes were in a lucky country.
Lucky, they could continue training for the postponed Games because of Australia's comparative control of COVID-19.
But that benefit comes with a sporting cost: a lack of international competition to measure where Australia should sit on the medal table in Tokyo.
"There's swings and roundabouts with this preparation," Chesterman told AAP.
"Clearly, we have had uninterrupted training for most sports which has been a huge plus.
"But they have not had the international competition which a lot of their European or American counterparts will have had - whilst they might have had a more interrupted training, they have had the opportunity to gauge themselves against others.
"Our athletes, in most sports, haven't had that opportunity.
"It's going to be interesting to see how that plays out."
Australia's Olympic fortunes have been in decline since the heady Sydney Olympics in 2000; the gold rush has become a trickle.
In Sydney, Australia won 58 medals.
At following Olympics, the tally has been 49, 46, 35 and 29.
The 29 medals at the troubled 2016 Rio Games was the least by Australia at an Olympics since 1992.
The eight golds in Rio was, with the 2012 London Games, equal-fewest since 1992 and the nation's 10th spot on the medal table the lowest since Barcelona.
All that after Australia entered Rio boasting about its ambition to finish top-five.
Now, the Australian Olympic Committee (AOC) refuses to make any predictions after backlash from athletes.
"The athletes' commission made clear to us that setting a medal target wasn't helpful," Chesterman said.
"We know there is enough talent in Australian sport that, if they all have their best day on the right day, we will win medals. How many, we don't know."
While the AOC is shy, and predictions about anything in a COVID world are fraught, Australia's 480-strong team can expect to win about a dozen gold medals in Tokyo.
Most should come at the pool: currently, Australia holds No.1 world rankings in 13 swimming events.
Lock in the women's 4x100-metre freestylers to repeat their golden success in 2016 - currently, the top four 100m freestylers in the world are Australians.
Rising 19-year-old Kaylee McKeown is the world-record holder in the 100m backstroke and ranked No.1 in the 200m backstroke and 200m individual medley.
Other swimmers ranked No.1, by times, in the world are Ariarne Titmus (200m and 400m freestyle); Emma McKeon (50m and 100m freestyle); Zac Stubblety-Cook (200m breaststroke) and Elijiah Winnington (400m freestyle).
Plus Kyle Chalmers (100m freestyle) - the sole Australian seeking to defend an individual Olympic title - is in ominous form.
Add the women's 4x200m freestyle and the new event, the mixed 4x100m medley relay, and the Dolphins could exceed Australia's benchmark of eight golds at the pool from the 1956 Melbourne Olympics.
But other Australian golden prospects are speculative.
Of Australia's other individual gold medallists from 2016, swimmer Mack Horton (400m freestyle), sailor Tom Burton (Laser class) and Catherine Skinner (trap shooting) missed selection in those events.
Rower Kim Brennan has retired while Chloe Esposito's modern pentathlon career is on hold after becoming a mother last year.
Australia's women's rugby seven team which triumphed in Rio has slipped well behind New Zealand - the Aussies are ranked equal second with Canada.
World No.1 Ash Barty is a chance in tennis but could face Japan's heroine and world No.2 Naomi Osaka on her home patch.
Logan Martin is favoured to win the first BMX freestyle Olympic gold medal after winning the world title last week and cyclist Rohan Dennis is a genuine contender in the road time trial.
Sailor Matt Wearn has been ranked No.1 in the world in the Laser class.
Elsewhere, the track and field team no longer has standard-bearers such as Sally Pearson
The men's basketball team boasts rich talent.
Despite Ben Simmons' expected withdrawal, NBA stalwarts Joe Ingles, Patty Mills and Matthew Dellavedova underpin a quest to better Australia's best Olympic finish of fourth - an agonising four times, including in 2016.
The nation's women's basketballers are ranked second in the world behind the United States, who stand in the way of the Opals winning gold for the first time - Australia's best result is silver in three consecutive Games from 2000.
And the men's hockey team, No.1 in the world, carry gold-medal favouritism - but then there's the Kookaburras' Olympic curse: just one gold (2004) from nine medal placings.
"My guess is that we're in good shape," Chesterman said.
"We know there are athletes who will win medals and that is what they aspire to do.
"So we should just encourage it while also recognising the fact that a bronze, silver and gold are all great medals - it doesn't all have to be about gold medals."
Australian Associated Press
