ACT right to stay the lockdown course

The ACT, after all, won its first battle with coronavirus by mid-2020 at a cost of only three deaths. Life in the territory was largely restriction-free until the Delta strain arrived from NSW, sending Canberra into lockdown just under four weeks ago.

While the Barr government's decision to "go hard and go early" has proved more effective than the responses in NSW and Victoria, with the reproduction ratio sitting at less than one, Delta is proving hard to beat.

While the Chief Health Officer, Dr Kerryn Coleman, praised Canberrans for doing the right thing on Tuesday - saying a total of only 274 cases since the outbreak began was a significant achievement - she also acknowledged there was ongoing cause for concern.

The major worry is that of those 274 cases, only 245 have been linked. The ACT still has 29 mystery cases, 23 of which may never be resolved. This may be attributable to multiple sources of infection from across the border.

"We need to break the lines of transmission," Dr Coleman said. "The end is going to be harder than the beginning."

Or, as the Chief Minister observed, "We are bending the curve down and we are getting on top of the outbreak ... however it is a slow process and it will take more time."

This comes as particularly bad news for parents, students and teachers, given it means there will be no widespread resumption of classroom teaching this term.

It is also a blow for local sports organisations, which will now have to abandon all hopes of completing their winter competition programs.

On the plus side, a review of the COVID-19 restrictions has resulted in some tweaks which will make a big difference for many people. The increases in the number of people allowed to attend weddings and funerals is particularly welcome.

The moves to allow more retail enterprises to open up on a "click and collect" basis will benefit businesses, employers and consumers, and the extension of the time permitted for outdoor exercise makes sense given that by September 17 the lockdown will have been in effect for five weeks.

There is also the hope that, if the dampening of the curve continues, residential construction will be allowed to reopen - under strict conditions - on September 10.

All of these developments are taking place against the backdrop of a NSW outbreak which is worsening by the day.

Independent analysts are predicting that NSW case numbers are likely to reach 4000 a day by the end of September, and that once that point is reached the state's health system will be under significant pressure.

Commentators are pointing out that while Gladys Berijiklian is playing down case numbers in favour of highlighting low hospitalisation rates, it is the case numbers that are driving the hospitalisations.

It is expected that 4000 new cases would result in about 400 hospitalisations, and one in 50 of those would end up in intensive care for weeks, clogging up the already beleaguered NSW health system.

Given that, despite these dire projections, NSW is leading the charge to begin opening up as soon as the Doherty targets are reached, the ACT is under great pressure to reach herd immunity as quickly as possible.

Once NSW opens the floodgates, the risk of infection crossing into the ACT will increase exponentially - despite the best efforts of "Ken Behrens" and the government.

Vaccination remains our first, last, and best form of defence. Don't wait for Pfizer; there isn't enough to go around. Book your AstraZeneca jab today. It is safe and it is effective.

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