Senator Zed Seselja's ACT Senate seat under threat at next federal election: poll

One independent election analyst says that although the numbers indicate the Liberal senator has enough support to retain his place in Federal Parliament, the popularity of the Greens and the emergence of independent Kim Rubenstein have put his position in jeopardy.

Senator Seselja told The Canberra Times he would fight hard to keep his seat, warning that the biggest threat to Australia's prosperity and security was a Labor-Greens coalition with a Senate majority.

The Liberal senator survived a union-led "Dump Zed" campaign to comfortably hold his seat in 2019, his second election win since switching from ACT to federal politics in 2013. But the Morrison government minister could face a nervier election night this time around.

Just 29.3 per cent of the more than 1000 Canberrans who participated in a poll commissioned by progressive think tank the Australia Institute said they would vote for the Liberals in the upper house if an election was held tomorrow.

If that result was repeated at the coming federal election, the Liberals would fall short of the roughly 33 per cent needed to secure a "quota" on first preferences, which would guarantee them a seat.

Senator Seselja and his running mate Robert Gunning achieved 0.97 of a quota (32.3 per cent of the vote) at the last election, which was enough to get him over the line. The Liberals polled slightly better in 2016, although they still failed to achieve a quota.

The uComms poll had Labor on 35 per cent, down from 39 per cent in 2019, and the Greens on 21 per cent, up from 17.7 per cent at the last election. The undecided was 2.2 per cent, and "other" was 1.5 per cent.

One Nation was favoured by 4 per cent of voters, even though Pauline Hanson's party didn't field a candidate at the last election and has given no indication it will this time around.

Just under 7 per cent of respondents said they would vote for an independent candidate.

However, the poll was conducted before Professor Rubenstein, a prominent constitutional lawyer, announced plans to create her own party and run for the Senate.

She has now collected the 1500 signatures needed to register Kim for Canberra, which means Professor Rubenstein's name will appear above the line on the Senate ballot paper, pending electoral commission approval.

Independent election analyst William Bowe, who runs the Poll Bludger blog, said the narrative around the Liberals possibly losing their ACT Senate seat emerged at almost every election.

He said the new polling suggested another "close but no cigar" result for those gunning for Senator Seselja's seat - Professor Rubenstein's candidacy had the potential to change the dynamic of the race.

He said although it would be very difficult for her to win a seat for herself, she could put a dent in the Liberal vote by drawing the party's progressive-minded supporters away from the conservative Senator Seselja.

That could help catapult the Greens - who won a record six seats at last year's ACT election - into the second seat.

"The conservatism of Zed Seselja gives them something to campaign against," he said. "The Liberals would want a bigger buffer than that [in the poll] going into the election campaign. With a good neutral independent, it could leech away a lot of the support. They could say 'vote Liberal in the lower house, by all means, but Zed Seselja is not a progressive Liberal'."

Mr Bowe cautioned that Senate polls did tend to inflate support for minor parties.

The pollsters also canvassed support in the lower house, which had Labor on 39 per cent, the Liberals on 29 and the Greens on 16.6.

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Australia Institute executive director Ben Oquist said although the results would give encouragement to the Greens and independents, they still faced a "Herculean task" to claim the second Senate seat.

Asked to comment on the poll results, Senator Seselja said he had delivered for Canberrans and would fight hard to retain the seat.

"I have been really pleased to be able to deliver record infrastructure and health spending in the ACT, as well as tax cuts for Canberrans as a member of the Liberal-National government," he said.

"The biggest threat to our prosperity and security is a Labor-Greens coalition government with a Senate majority.

"That is why I will be working tirelessly to ensure we continue to deliver for Canberrans, and retain this crucial Senate seat."

The poll also showed two-thirds of Canberrans supported a doubling in the number of Senate seats allocated to the ACT, from two to four.

"As Canberra continues to grow, there will be an increasing feeling that it should have a larger representation in the Senate," Mr Oquist said.

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