Canberra lockdown: Is the ACT ready to live with the virus?

October 15 will be far from a UK-style "freedom day" in Canberra, but it will bring about a gentle reopening of restaurants, gyms and hairdressers, a gradual return to office work and lawful outdoor gatherings of 25 people.

College students will be back on campus three days later, the next step in a staged return to face-to-face learning across the city's schools.

The reopening plan is a light at the end of the tunnel for Canberrans, who for seven weeks have had their livelihoods put on hold, or at risk, by a strain of the coronavirus which cannot be contained.

But there is trepidation about what comes next.

Business and workers will have financial support withdrawn at a time when they're still subject to restrictions, raising fears that traders could close and more people could be plunged into poverty.

The exit plan carries with it an acceptance that case numbers will climb as freedoms are returned, prompting questions about the health system's capacity to cope and the safety of vulnerable cohorts and unvaccinated children.

The ACT evaded the virus for more than 12 months. This outbreak has forced it to confront it.

Now it's preparing to live with it.

After facing a fortnight of criticism for refusing to reveal the plan to end Canberra's lockdown, Chief Minister Andrew Barr unveiled the much-anticipated roadmap on Monday.

The first milestone came quickly, with household visits of up to two people again allowed from Friday.

The more significant changes are tied to key vaccination targets, in Canberra, the surrounding region and nationwide.

When the lockdown lifts on October 15, local authorities expect 80 per cent of Canberrans over 12 to be fully vaccinated, while the national rate would have reached 70 per cent for over-16s.

A fortnight later, vaccination rates in the capital region and across the country are expected to have reached 80 per cent, giving local authorities comfort to allow all retail to restart, more patrons at hospitality venues, cinemas to resume and, from November 1, a return to class for years 3 to 8.

The ACT's roadmap is not set in concrete and could be tweaked, but Mr Barr this week gave an assurance that the lockdown would be lifted on October 15 even if the capital was recording 30 cases a day.

That commitment is further confirmation of just how much has changed in the past two months.

It took just one case to plunge a population of 430,000 people into lockdown on the afternoon of August 12.

As the outbreak spread in the subsequent days, authorities remained hopeful that the number of cases infectious in the community could be reduced to zero and the lockdown lifted.

The zero goal was never achieved, and almost certainly never will be. But nor is it the target any more for the ACT nor the two states battling Delta outbreaks - Victoria and NSW.

What's changed? Vaccination.

On August 12, fewer than 30 per cent of Canberrans aged over 16 were fully vaccinated.

As of Thursday, almost 65 per cent were fully vaccinated and a remarkable 91 per cent had received at least a single dose.

Mr Barr said as the nation reopens in the coming months, the ACT could expect daily cases "in the hundreds".

But case numbers - and, significantly, the number of cases which lead to serious illness, hospitalisation and death - would diminish with higher rates of vaccination, he said.

Those at risk are the unvaccinated - a cohort which includes about 80,000 children in Canberra aged under 12.

However Professor Peter Collignon, an infectious diseases expert at the Australian National University, says while the risk of serious illness in children isn't zero, it was much lower than the risk in adults. Mr Barr this week referenced a 2 per cent hospitalisation rate for children who contracted COVID-19.

The major pressure on hospitals is therefore expected to come from unvaccinated adults in Canberra and the surrounding region.

But with such a high proportion of Canberra's adult population inoculated, coupled with the fact that the reopening coincides with the start of warmer weather, Professor Collignon is confident the hospital system could manage the transition.

However, he is only willing to make predictions until the start of next winter.

"I mean, we won't have zero cases, and we'll have people in the hospital, but I think we're in a good position and we'll be in a good position in two months' time from now," he says.

Australian Medical Association ACT branch president Walter Abhayaratna says if a 90 per cent vaccination target was hit, coronavirus would "become a disease that we could live with".

But Dr Abhayaratna says restrictions would need to be eased carefully. The resumption of two-person household visits will provide some indication of how cases might spike and the burden on hospitals ahead of the lockdown ending.

"If they are learning from that first set of easing that it's actually more [cases] than they expect, they can slow down some of the easing in an evidenced-based fashion," he says.

Dr Abhayaratna is again imploring the Barr government to mandate vaccines for all healthcare workers.

Although well above the national average, vaccination rates in the ACT's Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander community and among people with a disability are lower than the territory-wide level.

Just over half of Canberra's Indigenous population over the age of 15 is fully vaccinated, while just under 60 per cent of National Disability Insurance Scheme participants aged over 16 have received both doses, according to the latest figures.

A damning report from the disability royal commission this week urged states and territories against "significantly" easing restrictions once they reached the 70 per cent vaccination threshold, until all people with a disability have had the opportunity to receive both doses.

Many people with a disability aren't NDIS participants, meaning the true rate of vaccination among that cohort is unknown.

ACT Council of Social Service chief executive Emma Campbell is grateful the government has acknowledged the importance of high vaccination rates in vulnerable cohorts, in addition to whole-of-population targets.

She welcomes the government's "cautious" reopening plan, saying experiences overseas have shown those groups are most at risk when the virus ran wild.

"We have one chance to get this right because for vulnerable people, it really is a matter of life and death," she says.

Two major announcements this week signalled a turning point in the federal government's economic response to the pandemic.

The disaster payment program, which has provided up to $750 per week to stood-down workers and $200 per week to some welfare recipients, will be wound back and then axed in the fortnight after a state or territory hits the 80 per cent vaccination threshold.

Commonwealth-funded business support will also end once that milestone is hit.

That ACT is set to hit that mark in the middle of October.

About 63,000 Canberrans have received at least one disaster payment since the lockdown started, amounting to $226 million in income support.

If they are unable to find work after the lockdown ends, those people will have to survive on the JobSeeker payment, which has a base rate of about $45 per day.

Dr Campbell says she is "deeply concerned" about what the coming months might bring.

"We're going to see a growth, a significant number of people who are forced to live below the poverty line," she says.

NSW and Victoria have detailed their own path out of lockdown in recent weeks, which includes some similarities among many differences to the ACT plan.

For example, where in NSW and Victoria only the fully vaccinated will be allowed in pubs and restaurants when they reopen, no such rule will apply in Canberra.

The ACT has taken a more cautious approach than NSW on density limits, with hospitality venues set to be bound by the one-per-four-square-metre rule until late November or early December.

Australian Hotels Association ACT general manager Anthony Brierley has lashed the roadmap as "awful" and says trade won't be viable until the start of summer.

But what is even more pressing than capacity limits is the need for clarity on how contact tracing and quarantine will work once the lockdown is lifted with cases circulating in the community, he says.

Mr Brierley says venues won't put themselves through the "trauma" of reopening their doors if one positive case could cause them to shut immediately, forcing staff and patrons into a fortnight's quarantine.

"Venues are saying they don't want to do that [reopen on October 15] if staff are going to have to isolate. It is unworkable," he says.

The NSW government is reportedly considering changes whereby fully vaccinated people would be marked casual contacts even if they came into close contact with a positive case.

Mr Barr on Friday confirmed the national cabinet is considering changes, but cautioned the local sector not to expect a "radical" overhaul in time for the October 15 reopening.

"I wouldn't be anticipating radical change by the 15th of October, but by December 1 and beyond we may well have transitioned into a different model," he said.

Mr Brierley is hopeful Canberra's hospitality sector could bounce back strongly in December, but fears for the future of some businesses as restrictions remain and financial support tapers off through October and November.

"If there is nothing [further support] for six weeks, businesses will close. And I don't say that lightly. Businesses will be done by the time we get to December."

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