Net zero: Halving emissions the 'least' Australia can do, IPCC vice-chair says

Australian National University professor Mark Howden has also warned the Morrison government against taking new climate projections instead of firm targets to the upcoming Glasgow summit, saying such a move would be met with a "degree a cynicism" on the world stage.

The Liberals and Nationals are entering the final stages of negotiations on a roadmap to decarbonise the Australian economy, which could include a higher 2030 carbon reduction target and a commitment to achieve net zero emissions by 2050.

Nationals members will meet on Sunday to consider their position on the plan, having spent much of the past fortnight publicly lobbying for concessions for regional Australia in exchange for signing up to a net zero target.

Mr Littleproud this week told The Canberra Times he believed the majority of his colleagues were supportive of decarbonising the economy, but wanted to know how it could be achieved and at what cost before signing up.

The Liberals' leading conservative in the Federal Parliament, Defence Minister Peter Dutton, on Friday threw his personal support behind a net zero by 2050 target as he expressed confidence a plan could be agreed to in the "next few days".

Pressure on the Coalition to raise Australia's climate action ambitions has intensified since the release in August of the latest UN Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change [IPCC] report.

Described as a "code red for humanity" by UN Secretary General Antnio Guterres, the report found global temperature rises could breach the critical 1.5-degree threshold in the early 2030s and hopes of containing warming to two degrees could soon be dashed without rapid and large-scale emission cuts.

The UN has said a 45 per cent cut to global emissions was needed this decade to achieve net zero by 2050, amid warnings that existing pollution levels have put the planet on a "catastrophic pathway" to 2.7 degrees of heating by 2100.

The federal government's current short-term target is to cut emissions by 26-28 per cent of 2005 levels by 2030.

In an interview with The Canberra Times ahead of the Glasgow summit, Prof Howden said the "least" Australia could do was align its 2030 target with the UN's goal - which means cuts of 45-50 per cent.

"If we wanted to take a leadership role we would have to have a more ambitious target than that, similar to what the US and UK have," he said.

Prof Howden believed the Australian public would support a higher target, provided it was underpinned by a clear and "well-intended" plan to achieve it.

The government is reportedly mulling the option of fronting up to Glasgow with an updated projection of emission levels for 2030, rather than a new target.

Prof Howden warned against this. He pointed out that under the Paris Agreement, signatories submitted commitments - known as Nationally Determined Contributions - rather than projections or aspirations.

"A commitment in a national sense is the same as a commitment in a personal sense," he said.

"It is something you genuinely aim to achieve."

Asked how countries would respond if Australia brought only a new emissions projection to Glasgow, Prof Howden said: "I suspect other countries, other governments, would respond with a degree of cynicism."

New research this week suggested the government could afford to lift its 2030 target to between 37 per cent 42 per cent without changing policies, as a result of the state and territory governments' strong climate policies.

A number of Liberals backbenchers, including Dave Sharma and Jason Falinski, have backed higher 2030 targets to help achieve net zero by 2050.

Their colleague Andrew Bragg this week used a speech to a climate investor group to declare a 40 per cent target was achievable. He cited the development of new technologies, such as hydrogen, more renewables and major investment in transmission as the keys to reaching net zero.

"None of these challenges are beyond the scope of Australia," he said.

"We are now on the path to get to net zero and beyond."

Senator Bragg also argued agriculture should not be excluded from emissions targets, as some Nationals have previously called for.

"A key reason why agriculture should not be excluded from Australia's targets and plans for net zero is that we need agriculture to ultimately focus on offsetting its own emissions, not from other parts of the economy," he said.

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