Seaplanes on the lake like 'Snakes on a Plane': a bad idea

A 59-page discussion paper and three-page consultation summary tell us the NCA "is of the view that the potential impacts of seaplane operations on Lake Burley Griffin can be appropriately managed" and that "there are significant benefits in creating a unique travel tourism link to the nation's capital".

There's more of this bureaucrat-meets-advertising-guru language throughout the papers: "Consultation has established that while it is recognised that operations would enrich the appreciation of Canberra as the national capital and contribute to a diversification of the local economy, further work is required to address the concerns of existing lake users."

Following the NCA's lead, the Chief Minister's office is responding to constituents by describing the idea as "offering a significant point of differentiation as we gradually welcome back international visitors".

All this is code for "it's going to happen". But, like snakes and planes, seaplanes and Lake Burley Griffin are two things that shouldn't mix.

Beyond vague notions of enriching appreciation and showcasing diversified experiences, what benefit would seaplanes flying to and from Canberra bring? Apart from a seaplane company's reference to "generating positive economic externalities", the discussion paper is silent on actual economic benefit. That might be because doing the maths the NCA clearly hasn't reveals it's deeply underwhelming.

Three seaplanes a day, each with a full load of 14 passengers, would bring 42 passengers to Canberra. If they spend up big, we could see $42,000 a day injected into Canberra's restaurants and shops. More if they squeeze in time at the casino.

And maybe I'm overdoing it. If Canberra is as attractive a destination as the NCA and ACT government suggest, then many of these folk will come to Canberra anyway - by car, train, bus or a plane that doesn't land on top of an unwitting kite surfer.

So what are the "potential impacts" that apparently "can be appropriately managed"?

They're the obvious ones the NCA's careful language can't avoid: "The safety of lake users, such as swimmers, rowers, yachters, kayakers, stand-up paddle boarders, windsurfers, and other small watercraft, and how to manage potential conflicts between seaplanes and other lake users, was the single biggest concern raised by the various rowing and sailing clubs." This and other problems were set out in the 72 submissions that opposed the idea (as opposed to the 21 supporting it).

The NCA's approach here is a surprise that can be explained only by a natural sense of mischief and fun. They plan to have the planes land on the busiest part of the lake with the most young and new users.

The planes will take off and land at about 90km/h on the stretch of water between the major rowing clubs' buildings and the Canberra Yacht Club, near Kings Avenue. That guarantees the maximum chance people will be in or near the landing zone at any given time. It also means that clearing the lake for each seaplane to land and take off will be as complicated as possible, and affect as many people as possible.

So, the "potential impacts" turn out to be physical ones to people - although these dangers will bring financial and insurance costs as well.

Maybe the cheeky NCA planners have taken up the Riotact "poll" thinking they describe in the consultation summary, where some 800 people gave a yes or no answer. The suggested reason to say "Yes" to seaplanes was that "It's a fun idea that will enliven the lake".

They're spot on. Nothing enlivens a volunteer sailing instructor more than trying to get a couple of seven-year-olds in one of the Canberra Yacht Club's surprisingly well-named Optimist dinghies out of the safety buffer of a seaplane approaching at 90km/h.

All of this might sound hypothetical, but insurance companies and safety regulators deal in exactly these kinds of risks, so even limited seaplane activity on the lake will drive very different behaviours, risk profiles and premiums.

No club manager can risk having a sailor, rower or kayaker left anywhere near the landing zone, so they'll have to shepherd everyone off the area well before any planned plane turning up and leave a wide margin around starting up again.

Not keeping up to date with the latest advice on the seaplane companies' operations will mean risking fines from ever-zealous ACT authorities, and leave families out on carp fishing adventures wondering uneasily about the arrival of visitors who'll enrich us with a unique landing experience.

For the convenience of a vanishingly small number of indulged seaplane passengers, everyone else's use of the lake will be squashed into time windows well away from when the planes might be operating.

Once we get over the worries about high-speed vessels on the lake, I look forward to further novel lake interactions. Maybe cigar boat races like Stefan the hairdresser's fabulous pink Gold Coast machines.

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A last example from the NCA wordsmiths shows how hard they're working to situate the appreciation in favour of this ridiculous initiative.

Canberra birdwatchers and other environmentally engaged people raised concerns about the noise and disturbances brought by seaplanes to the lake's wildlife.

The NCA dismissed these with a superb hypothetical thought experiment, saying "it should be noted that one of the proposed operators is actively engaged in the development of electrically powered seaplanes, which would ameliorate several environmental concerns raised during consultation".

They didn't add that there are no viable electric passenger planes, and any idea an electric seaplane is an early priority for aviation's transition to a fossil-fuel-free future is absurd.

As the NCA put it, "the submissions and conversations provided a valuable insight into community's use of the lake and details of localised economic and environmental conditions".

In their "Next Steps", we need NCA planners to act on those insights, not repeat proponents' marketing pamphleteering, and bring some hard-nosed maths to the issue. Along with some actual thought about the changed way everyone not in a seaplane will need to manage being on the lake.

Planes on a Lake shouldn't get a Canberra screening anytime soon.