Four Beijing medals would be 'fantastic'

But COVID-19 makes predicting medals a particularly fraught job this time.

Data analysis company Nielsen-Gracenote forecasts the Games medal tally and it has Australia winning three golds amid four medals overall.

Australia won two gold medals at the 2002 and 2010 Winter Olympics, but it did not reach the top step of the podium at the last two Games.

The most medals Australia has won at a Winter Games is three, which it has done at the last three Olympics.

"If we win one medal that's good. Two medals, very good. Three medals, very, very good," Australian team chef de mission Geoff Lipshut said on Tuesday.

"Four medals, we've never won four medals, so that would be fantastic."

There are at least six genuine Australian medal chances including world champion Laura Peel and Danielle Scott in the aerials, Jakara Anthony in the moguls, snowboarder Tess Coady in slopestyle, Belle Brockhoff in snowboard cross and Bree Walker in the monobob.

But the Beijing Olympics will be unprecedented when they open on Friday in a tightly sealed bubble with its COVID-19 tests, extreme health precautions, and athletes fearful of testing positive before they leave home, or when they arrive in the Chinese capital.

The possibility of last minute-changes have made predicting the final medals table more challenging than usual for Gracenote.

Its Olympic numbers are based off computer models that analyze the most recent results in major competitions - and smaller ones - ahead of the Beijing Games.

"Due to the impact of the global COVID-19 pandemic, there is potential for the Beijing Winter Games to be more unpredictable than normal," Gracenote said on its final forecast.

"There is a high probability that some competitors currently ranked in our top three, will not be able to compete due to failing a COVID test."

Norway is the pick again to top the medals table with 44 overall and 21 gold. That would top the 39 medals that Norway won in at the 2018 Pyeongchang Games.

Gracenote predicts that 28 of Norway's medals will come in cross-country skiing or biathlon.

Germany and the Russians, competing at the Olympics as ROC, are predicted to win 30 overall. Germany is picked to take 11 gold and the ROC 10.

The next seven teams in the top 10 are tightly grouped, with the United States and Canada expected to win 22 overall medals.

Gracenote has Australia at 15th on its medal tally with the prediction of three gold and four medals.

- with AP

Australian Associated Press