Ukraine invasion is a test bed for a whole new way of war

Anybody filling up the tank with petrol will have already felt the initial premonitions of conflict as the price of a barrel of crude jumped to US $100 a barrel. Now it will surge higher, as will the price of grain, the other commodity exported by Russia, which will stoke inflation as uncertainty works its way through international markets. Such effects have, however, been broadly anticipated and so, although they will cause significant disruptions, have nevertheless been effectively factored in.

The real question military analysts are attempting to grapple with is the extent to which this conflict is likely to usher in a new type of war.

Although nobody has yet spotted the latest generation of Russian Main Battle Tanks, the T-14 Armata, lined up at the border ready to roll forwards, that probably has more to do with production problems than Moscow's intent. Masses of T-90's with explosive reactive armour are expected to make short work of any traditional defences. These will form the spearpoint of any blitzkrieg, having the capacity to simply roll over any formed opposition, which would be simultaneously pummelled by Uragan multi-launch rocket batteries, which blanket an entire area, or the more accurate Koalitsiya howitzers taking on precision targets.

Iskander short-range missiles have been deployed, giving the Russian commanders further ability to simply destroy any forces standing in the way of their advance. Taking just over 16 minutes to set up and program precisely, these weapons can destroy the most secure bunkers or, more ruthlessly, be used as area weapons to clear a path for the armoured thrust.

Yet some analysts believe that despite Russia's dominance in conventional weaponry, significant weaknesses remain. These may be able to be exploited by a dynamic, well equipped, and determined enemy.

Although Russian-backed forces in the Caucasus did effectively use armed aerial vehicles to launch precision attacks that left their enemies reeling, there's been no indication that regular units are capable of using such weapons-systems. Similarly, although the forces are attempting to modernise the formulaic, "top-down" control methods of the past, there's been no indication that the traditional command structures have become either flexible or capable of displaying initiative.

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The biggest questions, though, are not about the face of traditional conflict at all. Cyber-war has no borders and represents the biggest threat to Australia. We simply don't know what weapons exist or the disruption that could be caused by significant shutdowns if the conflict jumps online.

It's no use having lots of money on your credit card if you can't access the payment system.