Australia has "no choice" but to look beyond Washington for security as Americans become increasingly isolationist, an expert warns.
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An annual report from the US Studies Centre has revealed Americans are less certain about the value of international partnerships, and most now believe their country's best days are behind it.
USSC chief executive Simon Jackman warned the country's fractious politics dwarf international affairs in the minds of its voters, a trend likely to worsen if Donald Trump launches another tilt at the presidency.
But Mr Jackman predicted growing isolationism in the US means Australian diplomats face an uphill battle regardless of who sits in the White House.
"[The] American political system is profoundly distracted by domestic issues," he said.
"Public opinion has a large, gaping indifference to alliances and whether they make America safe or not."
US President Joe Biden has struck a less isolationist tone than his predecessor, with the AUKUS agreement announced in September deepening Australia's cooperation with Washington in the Indo-Pacific.
The report found 53 per cent of Americans viewed Australia as an ally, second only to the UK. But when asked whether alliances made the US more or less secure, the most common response was non-committal.
Mr Trump's America First rhetoric has grown roots in Republican politics, and upended international orthodoxy - including threats to withdraw from NATO, and walking away from the Paris Climate Accord.
America is already exhibiting "levels of isolationism we haven't seen in the modern era", Mr Jackman said, and a stalemate in Ukraine could feed the former President's narrative.
'No choice'
Australia responded to Mr Trump's election by putting its relationship with Japan "on steroids" and bolstering security pacts with regional players, Mr Jackman said.
"Australia has really no choice other than to take on more for itself, to be more responsible for our own security and prosperity in the region with other countries," he said.
"That's true under Biden, but it's really true to the extent we see Trump or a version of Trump."
The report found Mr Biden's approval ratings are "indistinguishable" from Mr Trump's at the same stage in their presidencies. The President is on course for defeat at the 2022 midterm elections, potentially handing control of Congress to a Republican Party still largely under Mr Trump's influence.
Mr Jackman said that could prove a silver lining for Australia, with Republicans more likely to view security and the Indo-Pacific as priorities. But he is concerned the "partisan instinct" now driving American politics could scupper cooperation.
"You throw in that heady mix of domestic US politics as we get closer to the presidential election, and keeping AUKUS on track is just going to be hard, hard yards," he said.
The report also showed the US slipping out of the world's top 30 liberal democracies, determined by access to free and fair elections - with gerrymandering and the politicisation of its court system having an impact.
Mr Jackman said Australia's alliance with the US is primarily a "hard-headed" security pact which remains vital to its interests, despite Canberra and Washington stressing shared democratic values.
He questioned whether that rhetoric will be sustainable in the long-term, saying Australians could soon be "right to ask" about what underpins the relationship.
"If the trend that we've identified in the last four years were to continue or even accelerate ... maybe it's time to have a less romantic and a more hard-headed reckoning with the Australian people," he said.
Australians back Biden
The survey revealed Americans are increasingly pessimistic about the future.
Nearly two-thirds now believe America's best days are behind it, a figure rising both among Trump supporters (75 per cent) and Democratic voters (50 per cent).
The overall figure is slightly less than the 70 per cent of Australians who agreed with that statement.
Mr Biden remains Australians' preferred president (falling from 49 to 45 per cent), remaining steady among Labor voters (64 per cent) but dropping slightly among Coalition voters (from 34 to 26 per cent).
Support for Mr Trump has dropped six points between the lead-up to the 2020 US election and last month, a period in which the former President stoked a deadly attempt to overthrow the result.
But the gap between the pair remains tighter than previously US election races, with 60 per cent of Australians preferring Barack Obama before the 2008 poll, compared to just 14 per cent who plumped for Republican nominee John McCain.