The Coalition faces a tougher path to re-election as new polling shows a fall in voter support, leaving the government in a worse electoral position than during the Black Summer bushfires.
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New figures from an Australian National University election study show support for the Coalition has dropped to 32.2 per cent, lower than the number reached (35.4 per cent) as the government received criticism for its handling of the 2019-2020 bushfire season.
The study looked at how policy issues have swayed voters, showing the biggest flow of voters over the past three years going from Coalition to Labor.
Professor Nicholas Biddle, who led the study from January 2020 to January this year, found people who had a negative COVID experience and those who valued strong environmental policies turned away from the Coalition in the largest numbers.
"After the 2019 election the Coalition lost a lot of support during the bushfires. They were able to regain that during COVID but they haven't maintained it," he said.
Through surveying 3500 people aged 18 and above this year, Professor Biddle found those who considered environmental issues more serious were more likely change their vote.
The number of Australians who thought the Coalition was failing to do enough on the environment was 65 per cent in January 2020. It fell to 58 per cent in January 2021 and increased to about 62 per cent in January 2022.
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The report focused on those who said they would have voted for the Coalition when asked in January 2021, and then looked at the factors associated with the probability that they would intend to vote for a different party in 2022.
"The largest flow from Coalition voters was to Labor voters," Professor Biddle said.
He said there was a distinct possibility that undecided voters would eventually vote for the Coalition in the 2022 poll. However, the number of undecided voters was smaller than before the 2019 election, meaning there was less room for unpredictability.
Women's issues continue to plague the government
The Coalition experienced a significant decline in support from women, Indigenous Australians and young people due to their handling of social policy issues, particularly sexual harassment and assault in the workplace.
"These are groups which would on average not have voted for the Coalition, which says to me the support for the Coalition during COVID was pretty soft and most of those have now gone back to either some of the other minor parties or to Labor," Professor Biddle said.
The number of undecided female voters was 8 per cent, larger than the general rate of undecided voters at about 6 per cent.
Professor Biddle said it could mean there is still scope for the Coalition to regain some of that support but it's not going to be easy.
"I'd be terribly surprised if the Coalition spent a lot of time targeting female voters who might be on the margins, that's going to be a pretty hard sell this close to the election," he said.
Professor Biddle also found men who thought sexual harassment was a big issue were more likely to move away from voting for the Coalition than a woman who didn't think sexual harassment was an issue.
"So gender kind of mattered, but direct attitudes mattered more and it's almost like the Coalition has also lost support amongst males who see sexual harassment in the workplace as an important issue," he said.
Economic and khaki election unlikely to sway voters
Traditionally the Coalition will campaign on its commitment to delivering a budget surplus and cast itself as a superior economic manager to the Labor Party. However this time Professor Biddle said this may be a bit trickier to argue.
"I think what the Coalition is really going to struggle with is making a case that, yes they spent a lot of money over the last couple of years on COVID, and most people are very supportive of this, but what does that say about the difference with Labor in terms of keeping close to a balanced budget?" he said.
While the study came out before the war in Ukraine and the Coalition's attempts to pivot the conversation to national security, previous studies have found military issues have little influence on people's voting habits.
"We can't really make conclusions without data about what would happen post-Ukraine, but what we can say is there doesn't really appear to be a correlation between views on the military broadly and changes in voting intentions," Professor Biddle said.
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