The pandemic is not yet over, the mid-year budget review declares. But as far as the numbers are concerned, it may as well be.
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The deficit is better than expected. Government revenue in the ACT is steaming ahead. Stamp duty is up and expectations for wages growth are better than they were in October.
There is more money earmarked for the COVID-19 response, with winter still a looming uncertainty. The health system will need to be prepared for an influx of patients if the cold-weather coronavirus sniffles set in.
Chief Minister and Treasurer Andrew Barr was realistic when he addressed the media on Thursday about the risks COVID-19 still pose, especially if variants emerge.
But the era of first wave pandemic economic responses is over. Wage subsidies are done and business grants are no longer needed, Mr Barr said.
Is this what a post-pandemic economic future for the ACT looks like? The only thing the Chief Minister said he knew for certain was COVID came in waves.
"This could be what we have to deal with every year for the rest of our lives. It's a bit depressing to think of it in that way, but it could be, like flu and like other infectious diseases, something that we all just have to live with," Mr Barr said.
Perhaps with hindsight some of the ACT government's budget assumptions have been conservative, with the better-than-expected bottom line a sign of earlier pessimism. The resilience of the ACT economy has been well proven now, and this mid-year budget review shows a government planning on that basis.
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The coming negotiations for 18 enterprise agreements between the ACT government and its staff this year will also set the tone for potential wages growth across other industries and workplaces in the territory.
These negotiations will also have ramifications for the federal public service - Canberra's largest employer - which has had an artificial wages ceiling.
A territory government overseeing growing wages is in a good political position, but the longer-term trick will be easing housing affordability pressures.
Opposition Leader Elizabeth Lee sought to cast the government's measures in the review - which included more infrastructure funding and a boost for health - as another failure on the "housing crisis" which is, in the Canberra Liberals' view, pricing Canberrans out of their dream detached new-build homes.
But this ultimately fell flat, with the local opposition putting all blame squarely at the feet of the ACT government. The Canberra Liberals decry a lack of greenfield blocks for detached housing - a fair criticism - but they do not acknowledge a far more complex picture and the implications of Commonwealth taxation decisions.
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