Labor's polling lead isn't a guarantee of victory at federal election

Most pundits say Labor's Anthony Albanese is on course for victory, barring unforeseen game-changers.

It's true he is not showing any signs of smugness. For him, this election is not in the bag. He is wise to retain that caution.

The Coalition has a strong card. And experience says it is often the strongest electoral card: the economy is going the right way for Scott Morrison.

On Thursday, the Prime Minister was boasting that the unemployment rate will be at its lowest for 50 years, though that would be by September when he may or may not be the leader to bask in its glory.

Labor enthusiasts would do well to remember the last election where the polls predicted a Labor victory - which never materialised. All the talk of a raft of issues on which a Shorten government would act were overshadowed in voters' minds by franking credits - the fears of people that they would be worse off.

It is true Labor's polling lead is greater this time but atmospheres change unpredictably in elections. Issues are crystallised and play in complicated ways in voters' minds.

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Does, for example, Labor's promise to sort out the deficiencies in aged care play well? After all, who could be against that?

Or does it raise fears Labor would spend too freely?

Labor does have one big advantage, and that is that Mr Morrison is now a known quantity. He has been tested in the heat of fire and pandemic.

Much will turn on perceptions of his character and his ability outside the television studio.

And it has the advantage that it has not left many hostages to fortune. There have not been the big promises, waiting to be dismantled in the heat of election. On occasion, you can almost sense Mr Morrison's frustration when he accuses Mr Albanese of deliberately presenting himself as a "small target".

The big factor may be whether the electorate feels it is simply time for a change. When the tide turns against a leader, there is little he or she can do. Every mistake is picked up and the successes ignored.

We may be at such a moment. But the only poll that matters is the one on polling day.

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