Senate candidate David Pocock reckons there will be a definite result of the contest between him and Liberal incumbent Zed Seselja within the next 10 days.
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He said on his Instagram account: "We should have a result by June 17."
But he remains confident of victory: "Based on the numbers, it's looking very positive."
The electoral commission is working to the same time-scale. It reckons all the ACT ballot papers will be verified and in its system by the middle of next week, and then the work of allocating preferences can take place.
On the best estimate, there should be a formal result by the end of next week but conceivably the beginning the week after.
The commission goes on arithmetic certainty not probabilities. Outside observers have already said that Mr Pocock is highly likely to win - or, as they often put it, Senator Seselja's path to victory is all but impossible.
On first preferences, Labor already has a sufficient quota of votes for one Senate seat. That's gone to Katy Gallagher who has already been sworn in as the new government's Minister for Finance.
For the second seat, Senator Seselja so far has three-quarters of a quota and Mr Pocock just under two-thirds of a quota.
But the assumption is that second preferences of at least the Greens (in fourth place, with a third of a quota) would go to Mr Pocock, who has been strong on environmental issues.
Election analyst William Bowe, who runs the Poll Bludger blog, said of Mr Pocock's prospects: "He will win."
"I think he needs 60 per cent of preferences. It is almost inconceivable that he gets less than 70 per cent, and it's more likely that he gets 80," Mr Bowe said.
Senator Seselja has not conceded despite the arithmetic.
The deadline for completing the whole national process and announcing results for all seats in both houses is June 28.
Counting the votes is complicated. There are 314,000 Senate votes in the ACT, for example, and if you then look at conceivable preferences from one to six, the number of combinations is huge.
On top of that, there are levels of security - computer scanning of ballot papers is checked by human beings.
"Right, not rushed," is the mantra, according to Electoral Commissioner Tom Rogers. "It's a key principle for us and despite an understandable external desire for things to be wrapped up quickly, it is a principle that maintains the strength of Australian elections.
"We will deliver legal, transparent and trusted results by the legislated deadline."
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Steve Evans
Steve Evans is a reporter on The Canberra Times. He's been a BBC correspondent in New York, London, Berlin and Seoul and the sole reporter/photographer/paper deliverer on The Glen Innes Examiner in country New South Wales. "All the jobs have been fascinating - and so it continues."
Steve Evans is a reporter on The Canberra Times. He's been a BBC correspondent in New York, London, Berlin and Seoul and the sole reporter/photographer/paper deliverer on The Glen Innes Examiner in country New South Wales. "All the jobs have been fascinating - and so it continues."
