ACT euthanasia rights fight: The numbers game that will decide fate of Kevin Andrews territory rights bill

Private members' bills or motions from a pair of Labor members - one from either territory - have been pushed in the past, including one from Mr Gosling and another ACT Labor member, Andrew Leigh, in 2018.

But this time will be different.

Where those bills were left to collect dust, ignored by successive governments uninterested in the debate or too scared of the fight it might provoke, this one will see the light of day.

That was now Prime Minister Anthony Albanese's commitment ahead of the May federal election.

Exactly when a debate is held in the Federal Parliament remains up in the air, but momentum is building for it to occur as soon as politicians return to Canberra on July 26 for the first sitting fortnight.

But bringing on a debate is just one part of the equation.

Whether the so-called Andrews Bill is overturned or not will boil down to a pure numbers game: do a majority of MPs and Senators believe the ACT and NT parliaments should be able to make their own right-to-die laws?

A range of factors, including the passing of assisted dying laws in each state, have coalesced to spur optimism among advocates and federal parliamentarians.

But there's caution too.

The federal bill which they're hoping to overturn hasn't survived for 25 years for no reason.

Judy Dent has fought the territory rights campaign from the start.

Her husband Bob was the first person to die under the NT's world first assisted dying regime, which was quashed when Kevin Andrews' bill passed the Federal Parliament in 1997.

The Canberra Times has been calling for a repeal of the Andrews bill as part of its Our Right to Decide campaign.

Mrs Dent agreed that the Payne-Gosling push represented the best chance of success because, unlike the many previous attempts, it has the endorsement of the government of the day.

That endorsement is not merely symbolic. It means precious parliamentary time will be set aside for a debate, something which wasn't afforded to other bills - including Country Liberal Sam McMahon's proposal.

But Mrs Dent is refusing to let her hopes rise too high.

"I'm afraid to get too happy because nothing will happen until the votes get counted," she told The Canberra Times.

"The numbers don't get counted until people stick their hands up. So I'm not celebrating ahead of time."

Since the federal election win, Finance Minister Katy Gallagher has convened multiple meetings of Labor's ACT and NT federal representatives to thrash out how and by whom a territory rights bill would be brought forward.

The combination of Ms Payne and Mr Gosling was deliberate, pairing not only an ACT and NT representative, but a supporter of assisted dying [Payne] with a colleague with strong reservations [Gosling].

The Canberra MP was among the Labor members who pushed for the then-opposition to commit to voting as a bloc on a territory rights bill, but caucus agreed to grant a rare conscience vote because of the sensitives around assisted dying.

Labor caucus will need to rubber-stamp the latest plan before it's introduced, presenting another chance to prosecute the case for a binding vote.

But having finally reached this point, there's little appetite for an internal fight. Not when there's a growing sense that the numbers are there for it to pass.

"I am optimistic [it will pass], both for the house and the Senate," Ms Payne said.

"I think there's been a change in views on this issue. Over the years people are coming to see that it really is time for people in territories to have the same rights."

While accepting the Prime Minister has a number of priorities for the first sitting fortnight, including introducing the government's signature climate change bill, some Labor figures believe the territory rights debate should be held as soon as possible to deny opponents time to mobilise.

Leading advocacy group Go Gentle Australia is expecting an opposition campaign to ramp up.

"They always step up, they're well organised and they have deep pockets," communications director Steve Offner said.

The group is planning to launch a campaign in the coming weeks encouraging people to contact their local parliamentarian ahead of the vote.

The combination of a slim Labor majority and a 16-member crossbench made up of predominantly progressive independents has advocates - including Mrs Dent - and parliamentarians confident the bill will comfortably pass through the lower house.

Two of the teal independents elected on May 21, Goldstein MP Zoe Daniel and Kooyong MP Monique Ryan, have this week publicly thrown their support behind territory rights.

"I feel strongly that all Australian adults should have equal access to well-designed provisions for voluntary assisted dying, regardless of where they live," Dr Ryan said.

Labor sources say part of the rationale for introducing the bill in the lower house is to secure an early win which demonstrates the strong level of support in Parliament, believing that could sway Senators sitting on the fence.

The numbers game was always going to be more complicated in the upper house, where the bill's fate will be decided.

David Leyonhjelm's legislation to restore territory rights was widely expected to pass the upper house in 2018, before several senators from across party lines made a last-minute call to reverse their position.

The vote was lost 34-36.

Much has changed since that vote, not least the election of a Labor government.

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The Greens will have 12 votes this time, all of which will be used to support ending the 25-year ban.

"This is not a conscience vote for the Greens, it's a matter of principle," Greens justice spokesman David Shoebridge says.

"If people who live in states are allowed access to voluntary assisted dying schemes, the same rights need to be extended to the territories.

ACT independent senator David Pocock is guaranteed to vote yes, having campaigned on territory rights during his historic election win over Zed Seselja. The former rugby star is drafting his own bill and is prepared to introduce it if Payne and Gosling's is held up.

Other Senate crossbenchers, including Jacqui Lambie, her sidekick Tammy Tyrrell and Pauline Hanson, are also all on the record supporting territory rights.

The outcome is likely to hinge on the number of no votes on the Labor side and the number of yes votes from the Coalition.

Seven Labor senators, the "shoppies"-union aligned Don Farrell, Deb O'Neill, Helen Polley, Chris Ketter and Jacinta Collins, plus Alex Gallacher and Pat Dodson, sided with Coalition senators and conservative crossbenchers to sink the Leyonhjelm bill in 2018.

Mr Gallacher has since died, Mr Ketter lost his seat in 2019 and Mrs Collins is now executive director at the National Catholic Education Commission.

The other four remain in parliament. The Canberra Times contacted each of them this week, but none responded.

It was understood Senator Farrell, now the trade minister, will consider the detail of the Payne-Gosling bill before settling on a position.

Senator Dodson is a long-time opponent of assisted dying because of concerns about the consequences for vulnerable Indigenous populations.

He argued during debate on the Leyonhjelm bill that it was "irresponsible to legislate in favour of another avenue to death" when Indigenous people were so over-represented in the health system.

Australian Christian Lobby national politics director Wendy Francis this week told The Canberra Times that encouraging Indigenous leaders who oppose assisted dying to speak with MPs and Senators would be the focus of its campaign against the Payne-Gosling bill.

Labor sources believe it is unlikely that any of the four will change their position.

But it might not matter.

Even if the same number of Labor politicians (seven) oppose the latest bill, it could still pass with the support of four Coalition members - assuming the crossbenchers vote in line with their publicly stated positions.

Two Liberals this week confirmed their support: opposition Senate leader Simon Birmingham and NSW moderate Andrew Bragg.

Former foreign minister Marise Payne backed the Leyonhjelm bill, but didn't respond when asked this week to confirm her position. Another backer could be new Nationals deputy leader Perin Davey, who revealed her support for territory rights during a Canberra Times survey of all MPs and Senators last year.

A number of staunch opponents left Parliament at the election, including Zed Seselja, Amanda Stoker, Eric Abetz and Concietta Fierravanti-Wells.

Appearing this week on ABC's RN Breakfast to discuss the fresh push to overturn the Andrews bill, NT Chief Minister Natasha Fyles didn't once the utter the word voluntary assisted dying, euthanasia or VAD.

The closest she came was a reference to the "issue".

The four-minute interview offered an insight into how political supporters are likely to push their case ahead of the vote in the Federal Parliament.

They want the debate to focus on the rights of territories, not the far more contentious subject of assisted dying.

Supporters want to demonstrate that even voluntary euthanasia opponents can be in favour of repealing the Andrews bill.

Mr Gosling and Bean MP David Smith offer two cases in point.

"You don't necessarily have to agree with the legislative outcomes of your state and territory Assembly, but that isn't a reason to limit their ability to come to those outcomes," Mr Smith said when asked how he reconciled his personal opposition to assisted dying with his support for territory rights.

"I think that's the right approach."

Mr Smith, for his part, believes the Andrews bill's days are numbered.

"I think it's likely that the parliament will vote to overturn the Andrews Bill," he said.

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