Canberra Raiders' wet wash highlights the need for new stadium plans

They start counting the rain drops as though they're lost ticket sales. The swing supporters, they say, are the ones who look at the window to decide if they're going to turn up.

Canberra Raiders bosses had that sinking feeling when the rain tumbled down and the temperature remained in single digits on Saturday afternoon just hours before the start of a rugby league classic.

The Raiders were on track for a massive crowd earlier in the week, but officials estimated between 3000-4000 decided to stay home because of the intermittent rain, ending hopes of breaking 20,000 for the first time of the pandemic era. In the end 16,912 turned up to see Penrith win 26-6.

But it's hard not to drift off wondering what if their home venue had more than 10-15 per cent of seats with a roof over their head.

Roughly, just 2500 people are protected from the elements at Canberra Stadium. It's hard to argue with Ricky Stuart's view that Canberra fan experience is "unfair" on the hardcore Green Machine base.

"Some of the stadiums you've got to play in are not at the elite of what the players and what the NRL are delivering," Stuart said.

"More importantly, for the fans. What the fans have to put up with out there at (Canberra Stadium) is unfair."

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That's why Raiders and Brumbies officials were perplexed this week when the prospect of a new stadium appeared to slip further down the priority list after more than a decade of delays and ideas.

It's naive to think a fully-enclosed stadium - or at least one with more coverage than 2500 seats - will solve crowd problems forever. There is evidence that shows an significant initial spike when a new venue is opened, but attendances can plateau after that.

Rugby union has plenty of issues that won't be fixed by spending $500-$600 million on a new venue and the swell and contraction of attendance figures is largely dependant on form in both codes.

Even then, the weather plays the biggest role in deciding who stays at home and watches from the couch on those cold days in the depths of winter.

For everyone who packed a poncho and towel to dry their seat on Saturday night, they probably knew of someone who decided not to come in case it rained again.

The Brumbies feel like they're fighting the crowd battle with one arm tied behind their back, and the Raiders know something needs to change to enhance their game day experience to continue growth.

Canberra Stadium is nearing its 50^th birthday. The Meninga Stand won't start crumbling when it celebrates the milestone in 2027, but it cannot keep going without major structural upgrades.

That five-year timeline has given the government room to pause and think, like it has done several times since 2009.

Each time the fear grows that the pause becomes a permanent stop, hence Stuart's frustration before kick-off in what he knew was going to be one of the biggest games of his team's season.

The Raiders and Brumbies at least thought the government was of the same mindset: Canberra needs a new stadium and it can't be delayed for another 10 years.

There was genuine momentum behind the plans at the federal election. Labor taking power and the rise of Independent candidate David Pocock put it on the Commonwealth's agenda for the first time in 13 years.

We'll find out soon if it's time to move forward, or we have to watch the idea wash away with the rain.

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