NRL finals: How the Brisbane Broncos improved the Canberra Raiders hopes of making the top eight

The Raiders edged closer to a finals spot without having to lift a finger on Thursday night.

The Parramatta Eels destroyed the Broncos 53-6 to blow up the finals permutations in the second-last round of the regular season.

It was hard to tell if the dull roar in the capital on Thursday night was from success-starved Eels fans (their premiership drought is the only one worse than Canberra's) or Ricky Stuart, his players and their supporters jumping for joy.

Either way, strap yourselves in Raiders fans because the next two games are going to be toy with your emotions in a way that you know far too well at this time of year.

Raiders fans know they can't count their ladder points or wins too early when the finals loom. They also know their team will take things down to the wire.

And thanks to the Broncos, the finals flicker is more like flame. All of a sudden the notepad full of mathematical options can stay on the table. All of a sudden the equation is relatively simple.

If the Raiders beat Manly on Saturday and the Wests Tigers next week, they will almost certainly earn a finals spot.

The Broncos are one win ahead of the Raiders, but the Raiders now boast a superior points differential. Yes, it's superior by just one point. But for the first time in a long time, it is superior.

After starting the week with a sheet full of ifs, buts and maybes, the finals answer is relatively simple compared to all the permutations 24 hours ago.

The Raiders have to make sure they beat Manly and the Tigers by a combined score that is more than Broncos can muster, should they beat the Dragons in the final round.

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Unfortunately for Raiders fans this is a feeling they know all too well as the weather starts to warm up. They've dedicated hours and hours of work time to finals equations.

It's become such a ritual that the Raiders should consider a "how to calculate the finals options" card in their membership packs.

But it's also a time when the Raiders thrive, like it's a sick obsession they just can't shake no matter how hard they try.

Remember the spectacular run in 2016? Ten wins in a row to finish the regular season and charging into the play-offs. Then there was 2012. Terry Campese's magic in 2010. The busted Raiders doing the same in 2008.

The 2019 and 2020 seasons were spent almost entirely into the top eight ... rare air for the Green Machine and their army.

It was back to regular transmission last year, but now they have to erase that memory of 12 months ago to move forward. All they had to do back then was beat the Roosters and they were in the finals. Instead, they stumbled and got an early holiday. The sort of heartbreak Raiders fans have known all too well over the past 28 years.

For now, the Raiders are the masters of their own destiny. It doesn't matter what happens in the Roosters-Storm showdown, nor the Rabbitohs-Cowboys match. It's in their hands.

Win. That's the simple answer. They need to beat Manly at home on Saturday, then the Tigers in the last game of the last round next weekend.

Should they beat Manly, they'll need to peek over their shoulder at the Broncos to make sure they win both games by enough.

Even if the Raiders lose this week, they can still make the finals provided the Broncos are beaten by the Dragons.

What are the Raiders-Broncos options?

Two Raiders wins and a Broncos loss = Raiders in the finals

Two Raiders wins and a Broncos win but by fewer than the Raiders' result = Raiders in the finals

Raiders win one of two and the Broncos beat Dragons but by fewer than the Raiders' result = Raiders in the finals

Let's not go down the path of draws.

The Broncos, Roosters and Rabbitohs are all on 28 points. The Raiders sit just behind on 26.

The main advantage the Roosters and Rabbitohs have is their for-and-against records. The Roosters are +187 and the Rabbitohs are +130. The Raiders (-25) and Broncos (-26) can't match that with two games left.

But the Roosters and Rabbitohs meet in the final round, meaning only one of them has a chance to reach 32 points.

The ideal results for the Raiders would be both the Roosters and Rabbitohs losing to the Storm and Cowboys, respectively, this weekend.

If the Raiders beat Manly, it means Canberra, Brisbane, the Roosters and Rabbitohs would all enter the last round on 28 points.

That would give the Raiders two bites at the cherry, given the Roosters and Rabbitohs are in their own fight.

If both Sydney teams win this weekend, the battle for eighth spot will be down to two: the Raiders and Broncos.

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