Australia will soon hold its first referendum in over 20 years. Prime Minister Anthony Albanese has confirmed that a vote will be held on a Voice to Parliament.
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According to the official website: "A Voice to Parliament is a body enshrined in the Constitution that would enable Aboriginal and Torres Strait Islander people to provide advice to the Parliament on policies and projects that impact their lives."
Whatever the merits of the proposal, lessons from other referendums suggest that the historical vote will be lost.
According to a statistical model, the Albanese government will lose by 8 per cent.
How is that? Opinion polls currently give those supporting 'the voice' a lead of 65-35 per cent.
So, why the dire prediction? Why am I so confident?
For starters, this author predicted Brexit in an article published a full five months before the British voted to leave the European Union in 2016.
The same model can be applied to the forthcoming vote and the result is not encouraging for Mr Albanese.
No, it has got nothing to do with the question. Referendums are not won because of the issue on the ballot but for other reasons.
Based on an analysis of all 600-plus votes held since World War II, all constitutional referendums start from a base of 56 percent yes-support. But in countries where there is compulsory voting (like in Australia, Chile, and Luxembourg) there is a drop-off of 13 per cent in support.
Add to this, that governments lose one percent per year when they are in office, and the forthcoming vote will be lost by a clearer margin than the Republic referendum in 1999.
Of course, there are other reasons for Labor to be pessimistic.
As readers are well-aware, referendums in Australia are about as likely to pass as reheated soufflé is to rise.
A popular majority has been secured in only 13 of the 44 referendums held since 1901, and fewer (eight) propositions received the necessary double majority (majority of voters as well as a majority of the states). This is a poor record however one looks at it.
Compared with other developed countries, the record is lamentable. Ireland has held nearly as many referendums as Australia, but in that country only nine out of 39 (23 percent) have failed. And in Switzerland, out of the 73 votes held since 1980, a mere 12 (16 percent) have resulted in a no-vote. The average yes-percentage has been 86.
So, are Australians simply naysayers and small-c conservatives?
Not really, it is just that in other countries, there is no compulsory voting and referendums are held early in the term.
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Is there a way out? Perhaps, the statistical model also shows that bi-partisan support adds 8 per cent to the result.
But even this does not guarantee success. Should Peter Dutton decide to throw his weight behind 'the voice', the 'yes' side will only just get over the 50 per cent mark.
And this is with a margin of error of 2 per cent.
This is a case of too close for comfort.
Moreover, history does not bode well for the proposal. In 1950, Liberal prime minister Robert Menzies initially enjoyed over 80 percent support for his proposal to ban the Communist Party of Australia in 1950. Yet he lost.
Robert Menzies, said - on the same occasion - "the truth of the matter is that to get an affirmative vote from the Australian people on a referendum proposal is one of the labours of Hercules".
That is a high bar indeed. Slaying the nine-headed Lernaean Hydra, and steading the mares of Diomenes, was not easy for the Greek hero. But he did it. Whether the Australian government feel that they have the same powers as a son of Zeus is a question only they can answer.
- Professor Matt Qvortrup, of Coventry University, is a visiting professor at ANU College of Law. His book I Want to Break Free: A Practical Guide to Making a New Country will be published by Manchester University Press in November.
