Canberra district strategies reveal where ACT government expects to build new houses, apartments in the future

It will need 100,000 new dwellings in the next 40 years to keep up with that growing population, and naturally that will have an impact on how and where we live.

Canberra has always been a planned city, so it shouldn't be a surprise that there's a plan for where all those new Canberrans are going to live.

It's recently published nine district planning strategies. These documents give an insight into the way Canberrans will live, and how the nature of our suburbs is going to change. There's not much room left for greenfields development - although there is some, and it's outlined below - so urban infill becomes more important for the territory.

Chief Minister Andrew Barr has also talked about "gentle urbanism" or "lower-density apartments, more like walk-up two- and three-storey and in townhouses, row houses, duplexes, that sort of housing density".

The reports identified an expected need for about 57,800 new dwellings across the ACT by 2046, and 100,000 new dwellings in 2063.

Many of those are going to be built in the central and northern parts of Canberra, especially the inner north and city, Belconnen and the Molonglo Valley (which strides the divide, but we'll call it nominally northern here when breaking down the regions).

But as we noted, it's not going to be all greenfield developments with rows of quarter-acre blocks. The shift from standalone suburban houses to apartments and semi-detached homes (which are classed as dual occupancies, townhouses and low-rise apartments in these reports) is gaining momentum.

"Assuming the ACT's target for 70 per cent of new dwellings to be within the existing urban boundary, this means a target of around 40,500 new dwellings in infill areas by 2046 with 17,300 in greenfield precincts and, by 2063, 70,000 infill and 30,000 greenfield dwellings respectively," the reports say.

That will mean some big changes to the break up of housing types in each district. The graphs below show those changes for each district.

The reports also identify which areas are more and less suitable for new housing. The yellow areas are highly suitable, and the red areas are not very suitable.

Luke van der Linden, a builder specialising in renovations over knock-down-rebuilds, said cost of living was driving demand for this kind of work.

"I think with the cost of new homes, people are definitely more geared towards renovating what they have, rather than knocking down and rebuilding," he said.

"I would expect that we'll see more of that happen in the coming years."

Mr van der Linden expects demand will continue to grow.

Here are more details on how you can expect your district to change in the coming years.

Despite being one of the more established districts, the inner north and city are expected to bring in more new people than any other district - even the relatively new Molonglo Valley - and the area could be in need of an additional 22,400 dwellings by 2063.

There are no greenfield precincts to develop in this area, so authorities expect most of those dwellings (between 17,000 and 21,000) could be delivered by developing land owned by Thoroughbred Park. The report suggests it will mostly be apartments. It also points to more infill developments through taking advantage of the larger blocks here.

While apartments already made up a large share of the districts' housing, it is expected just over half the district's housing will be more than three storeys high by 2063.

"Future residential development in the district will likely continue to be of a medium and higher density character," the report said.

"Numerous development projects and land release sites planned for the City Centre, along Northbourne Avenue and in Watson will contribute to delivering new housing. The light rail corridor will influence the urban form along this corridor and in the City Centre.

"Most of the district ranks highly in relative suitability for housing, particularly the City Centre and its surrounds and around Dickson and local centres. Across the more suburban areas, block sizes tend to be larger, offering potential opportunities for more infill development where appropriate."

About 12,400 more dwellings may be needed by 2063, and these could be built around the planned light rail corridor, in particular along Adelaide Avenue, in and around Barton, Kingston and Griffith.

Most of them will be apartments, with a smaller share of semi-detached dwellings.

Adelaide Avenue in particular could look quite different in the future, becoming "a vibrant, multimodal corridor that better connects into local neighbourhoods in Yarralumla and Deakin".

The site of Canberra Bowling Club and surrounding blocks could also be developed, as could Deakin local centre, west Deakin and the East Lake precinct, and these areas could provide between 4500 and 10,000 of the dwellings needed.

"New housing in the district will predominantly be medium and high-density, with major urban renewal precincts including East Lake, the Kingston Arts Precinct, Yarralumla Brickworks and Dairy Road," the report says.

"The light rail corridor from the City Centre to Woden presents the opportunity for public transport focussed development, with new dwellings located close to the corridor to benefit from the accessibility and amenity provided by this infrastructure.

"The areas showing the greatest overall suitability for new housing in the district are along Adelaide Avenue, in and around Barton, Kingston and Griffith, and around the local and group centres."

This region's tiny share of the total population (1934 people in 2021 - in Oaks Estate, Pialligo and long-term accommodation at Symonston) is not expected to grow much over the coming years because of the noise from flight paths, and sensitive and protected environmental areas. The government hasn't modelled the change to housing here.

Canberra's most-populous district (there were 106,061 residents, or 23.3 per cent of the territory's population last year), will only keep growing.

The documents flag demand for another 20,800 dwellings by 2063, with 16,500 of those expected to be infill development.

It is one of the few districts set to get more standalone houses, although that is going to be a relatively small amount of the growth.

Most of those homes could be provided by seven sites earmarked for potential development in the future: the town centre, Lake Ginninderra, the former Kippax playing fields and two Commonwealth parcels of land which the ACT government has been eyeing off.

Those sites are the CSIRO Ginninderra site, and the site of the former Belconnen Naval transmission station.

"Areas with the greatest overall suitability for growth are generally concentrated in the southern part of the district including centres such as Jamison, Macquarie, Weetangera and Hawker. The pockets of high suitability for housing are clustered around the group and town centres, contrasting with the outer suburbs, which rank lower in amenity due to comparatively less transport, access to open space, community facilities and centres," the report says.

An additional 9800 dwellings could be required by 2063, and about 5900 of these are set to be infill development.

A small portion of those homes could come from development of five rural blocks across the district.

One of those sites is the Commonwealth Heritage-listed Gungahlin Homestead, while two others are associated with EPIC.

"Most new housing in the district will be in the remaining greenfield suburbs (Taylor, Jacka and Kenny), which will have a generally suburban character but include a mix of housing types. Infill and redevelopment in Gungahlin is a longer term prospect," the report says.

Gungahlin Community Council president Henley Samuel said infrastucture to serve the growing population would be vital.

"The current infrastructure doesn't even match the current population and we need to bring it up to speed," he said.

The documents do note analysis to identify gaps in facilities, such as indoor sports centres and schools, will be key in the next five years.

Mr Henley said there was a need for more retirement living in the district, with a proposal for such a precinct recently flagged at the Gungahlin Homestead site.

"Now it sounds like a young population, right, but in 20 years' time, the demographic could quickly change."

Molonglo Valley

Molonglo Valley will eventually grow to house 55,000 people, requiring around 22,000 dwellings by 2063.

If you're looking to get a new greenfields standalone house, this is a good place to start. In contrast to other parts of Canberra, most of those new homes will be separate houses, followed by semi-detached dwellings and a smaller share of apartments.

Tuggeranong is perhaps the most suburban district in Canberra, with its relative predominance of standalone homes. Like other districts, though, the government doesn't see any real opportunities for new greenfields developments. Former Liberal senator Zed Seselja had pushed hard to expand the district to the west of the Murrumbidgee, but the ACT government has similarly long resisted that.

The population is only expected to grow modestly, and an additional 4800 dwellings could be required by 2063. The vast majority of those will be semi-detached dwellings.

"The areas with the best overall suitability for future growth are generally concentrated in the town centre and northern half of the district, aligned with the Athllon Drive corridor and the indicative future light rail route, the group centres and town centre, and much of Kambah," the report said.

"The suburbs furthest south generally show a lower ranking in relative suitability, influenced by travel distances and accessibility to facilities and services. These areas might be suited to future infill residential development to support group centres and their growth as service and employment locations, particularly if also linked to enhanced transport connections to other employment locations including the Tuggeranong town centre."

Not too much will change in Weston Creek, where the population and jobs are expected to grow only modestly. It will also be one of the more low-rise areas in the city.

With 24,630 residents in 2021, an additional 1300 dwellings are expected to be needed by 2063. Most of them will be semi-detached dwellings, with a small share of apartments.

"The areas showing the greatest overall suitability for potential future housing development are concentrated around the group centre, local centres and suburbs in the north such as Holder, Weston and Duffy," the report said.

"The outermost areas of the district are less suitable as they have comparatively lower access to transport and community facilities. New development areas that are currently proposed are limited to the northern part of Weston (north of Cotter Road) for residential development. This includes a private community facility site and potential future land release of the site associated with the relocation of the RSPCA."

Woden's 2021 population of 39,279 people will rise modestly, with an additional 6600 dwellings potentially needed by 2063.

There are no greenfield precincts planned in Woden, so this will all come from infill.

Seven areas flagged for potential development could supplement between 12,000 and 15,000 of these dwellings.

These include the former Curtin horse paddocks, Curtin edge north and south, Woden north and town centre, Phillip and Athllon Drive, Mawson and Farrer north and south.

"New housing in the district is likely to continue to be of medium and higher density housing forms, particularly catalysed by new development around the future light rail corridor and the town centre," the report said.

"Most of the district ranks highly in terms of suitability, particularly around the central spine and the town and group centres. Sites identified on the ACT Indicative Land Release Program for the district are expected to contribute to new dwelling supply as well as retail, entertainment and office space in the town centre and key urban intensification areas."

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