Given this week's mid-term elections in the US are a referendum on the Biden presidency, it seems probable the Democrats are headed for defeat in the 2024 presidential election.
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There is a high level of dissatisfaction with the Biden administration. Only 40 per cent of voters approve of the President's job performance. Almost 70 per cent say America is "on the wrong track".
Only 18 per cent feel President Biden and his even less popular Vice President Kamala Harris are steering the ship of state in the right direction.
That is bad news for an administration elected with such high hopes just over two years ago. The optimistic belief that after four years of Donald Trump the adults were in charge, and that solutions to problems such as COVID, social welfare, healthcare and climate change were within reach, is a fading memory.
More Americans have died of COVID since President Biden came to office than during the same period under Trump. The US economy is in worse shape than in December 2020, and illegal immigration has exploded, with an estimated 2.2 million people slipping past the border guards in the last 12 months.
While mainstream voters are not necessarily looking back on the Trump era with nostalgic affection, there is a widespread belief the Democrats - despite the fine rhetoric rolled out on inauguration day - have certainly done no better and, on many metrics, significantly worse.
The Republicans, who have capitalised on soaring interest rates, the Afghanistan debacle, presidential "senior moments", border jumpers, and fears of a recession, appear poised to seize control of both the Senate and the House of Representatives.
While the conventional wisdom is it is not unusual for the incumbent administration to lose support in the mid-terms, what is happening in the US right now is quite different.
In the 2014 mid-term elections, the Republicans won the Senate while the Democrats, under President Obama, held onto the House of Representatives. During the 2018 mid-term elections, the Democrats took the House of Representatives while the Republicans, under President Trump, held the Senate.
While both Trump and Obama had to fall back on executive orders to drive their respective agendas, there was still a balance of power within Congress. Obama issued 276 executive orders, or 35 a year, during his eight-year term. Trump issued 220 or 55 a year, during his four years.
Biden, despite having putative control of both the House of Representatives and the Senate, has already issued 104 executive orders or 59 per year (pro rata). None of them come close to the record holder when it comes to governing by presidential fiat however. Franklin D Roosevelt issued 3721 executive orders, or almost one a day, during his 12 years in office.
If, after the mid-terms, Biden has lost both houses, he will become a lame duck president in his first term in office who has to rely on executive orders, which are subject to challenge, to drive his policy agenda on climate change, energy policy, and the like.
While, in the short term, the results of the mid-terms are largely academic for Australia, the prospect of a Republican administration being returned in 2024 should be of concern to the Albanese government which will be facing re-election in 2025.
While Trump's defeat was a shot in the arm for the ALP, a Republican victory in 2024 would have the opposite effect.
President Biden's reversal of fortune is also a stark warning to Labor that calling out problems and making promises is not enough on its own. Governments that don't deliver don't last long. Vox populi, vox dei.
