Sue Wareham | Standing with Ukraine means more than simply fighting

If it means to share the sense of outrage at the ongoing crimes committed against the Ukrainian people by Putin's troops, then few would disagree with that position.

But if it means simply pouring in more weapons - a strategy that Australia appears to be supporting, now with military training as well - then the case is far more complex.

Tragically, even talking about options other than holding out for a military victory regardless of its costs is virtually taboo in some quarters. On October 24, 30 members of the US Congressional Progressive Caucus sent a letter to President Biden that very cautiously called for "vigorous diplomatic efforts in support of a negotiated settlement and ceasefire".

The letter was met with such fury that, in less than 24 hours, it was withdrawn (amid claims that it was in fact written in July).

While recognising the absolute need for "a sovereign and independent Ukraine", the letter stated "the alternative to diplomacy is protracted war, with both its attendant certainties and catastrophic and unknowable risks".

The major certainty in a protracted war is that many more innocent people - who always bear the brunt of wars' costs - will be killed, disabled, psychologically traumatised, displaced, or subject to the multiple crimes for which war provides cover.

Global food shortages as a result of the Ukraine war add a further huge layer of suffering.

The major uncertainty in the war continuing is the possibility of nuclear war, which Russian President Vladimir Putin has threatened. This risk will increase if desperation sets in.

Any use of the weapons would mean unthinkable suffering for millions of people, very little humanitarian response available for most of them and far wider global ramifications. Any notion that nuclear war will be averted because "nuclear deterrence" will save us ignores the chilling history of miscalculations, misinterpreted signals and sheer brinkmanship that have resulted in multiple narrowly-averted catastrophes.

The stakes could not be higher.

The challenges with negotiations to reduce these risks would be huge. They need highly-skilled diplomacy (which Australia, for one, has severely neglected in recent decades), and they need time. Negotiations should not be held to measures of success, such as achieving a rapid breakthrough, that are not applied to military actions.

They will be needed eventually; the sooner they are held, the more people will survive this war.

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Earlier in the war, in late March, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy was in fact prepared to discuss a peace deal with President Putin "without delay".

But things changed after US President Biden stated Putin "cannot remain in power" and Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin said one of the US goals in aiding Ukraine is to "see Russia weakened to the degree that it can't do the kinds of things that it has done in invading Ukraine".

These goals go far beyond the withdrawal of all Russian troops from Ukraine, ensuring Ukrainian independence, and an end to the war. The clear desire to inflict humiliation and total economic ruin on Russia is fraught with risk, and could threaten Europe's longer-term stability.

The very punitive treatment of Germany after World War I, and the subsequent rise of fascism there with catastrophic results, send a chilling reminder of the dangers of national humiliation.

Putin himself deserves no less, but it's others who would largely pay the price. That price could now include the use of the world's ultimate instruments of terror. US allies such as Australia should be saying so.

Western hubris in all this could be tempered by the fact that not a single person has been held accountable, anywhere, for the illegal and disastrous invasion of Iraq in 2003 in which Australia took part.

It killed hundreds of thousands of people and destabilised the region.

Standing with Ukraine demands far more skills than simply how to fight. The unequivocal condemnation of President Putin's war of aggression must continue, but at the same time no tools to minimise the human suffering from this war, and avert calamitous escalation, should be off the agenda. No matter how unpalatable and difficult, negotiations should be hastened.

Australia could play an important role by urging steps in this direction, and calling for a limitation of the war to the goal of Ukrainian independence. Ukraine must not be used for the playing out of US-Russian geopolitical rivalry with the existential risks that that carries.

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