The ACT government will need to manage a 16 per cent spike in the number of public college students over the next five years that would stretch some schools past their current capacity, demographic modelling for education officials has shown.
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The student demand projections, which are prepared by officials from the Education Directorate working with the Australian National University's demography school, show a 6.4 per cent rise in the number of public school students in the ACT in the five years to 2027.
But the growth in demand will not be evenly felt across the territory's primary and high schools, with some areas expected expected to record slight declines in student populations.
The Gungahlin district is on track to record the largest increase in public college students, with a projected increase of 28.2 per cent to 2027. The number of public high school students is also expected to increase by 32.2 per cent in the region.
Gungahlin College is on track to exceed its most recently stated capacity in 2025, when 1301 students are projected to attend the school. The college's capacity was 1288 in 2018, documents released under freedom of information at the time showed.
The government has committed to planning works for a second Gungahlin college.
Canberra College will also remain over its stated 2018 capacity, growing from 1069 students this year to 1244 in 2027. The college had a capacity of 1025 in 2018.
Overall, Canberra has sufficient college capacity to cope with the increase of students, but it will not be spread to the areas with the largest area for growth. The 2018 capacity data showed places for 9146 year 11 and 12 students, while the 2027 enrolment projection shows 7705 students at the college level.
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The number of primary school students in the Tuggeranong district is expected to fall by 6.6 per cent, with primary schools across the ACT to feel the smallest rate of growth at 1.7 per cent.
The school enrolment projections, first reported by the ABC and released on Monday, warn the figures do not take into account future enrolment policy or government planning responses to manage demand.
The figures do not consider school expansion projects, for example.
"The model is based on taking population projections of four-year-old children in an area, allocating them to a local primary school and tracking them as they graduate through to high schools and eventually college," the information said.
"This is calculated based on a number of inputs and underlying assumptions based on observed behaviour including the historical preference for public schools, catchment areas, underlying demographics, etc."
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Jasper Lindell
Jasper Lindell joined The Canberra Times in 2018. He is a Legislative Assembly reporter, covering ACT politics and government. He also writes about development, transport, heritage, local history, literature and the arts, as well as contributing to the Times' Panorama magazine. He was previously a Sunday Canberra Times reporter.
Jasper Lindell joined The Canberra Times in 2018. He is a Legislative Assembly reporter, covering ACT politics and government. He also writes about development, transport, heritage, local history, literature and the arts, as well as contributing to the Times' Panorama magazine. He was previously a Sunday Canberra Times reporter.
