Election study paints the trouble conservative politics is now in

Despite the best efforts of active sections of the media, the Australian electorate is decidedly shifting to the left and Peter Dutton, himself, has just acknowledged the Liberal Party has an "identity crisis".

The record crossbench in Parliament House, including the teals and the four Greens MPs, is no fluke. Rather it has been a long time coming, coupled with the breakthrough organising and funding within the independent movement.

No one can say there have not been warnings about ignoring women and younger voters "at peril". Yet here we are and the Coalition still seems, at best, confused about them.

Major parties may not have bothered straying too far from their traditional base, thinking effectively that "they don't vote for us" and targeting women and young people would be a waste of time, but it is all coming back to bite. And the bite in 2025 is tracking to really hurt.

The demographics are stark. Millennials, Generation Z and the new generations will soon make up the bulk of the electorate.

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They are voting progressively - as the Election Study shows one in every three voters cast ballots for a minor party or an independent - and it did not just suddenly start at the last election.

"If you look at the graph of this, it's been going up progressively over the last 20, 30 years. So what we've seen in '22, is a continuation of a long-term trend," 2022 Australian Election Study co-author Professor Ian McAllister told The Canberra Times.

"There will be more volatility. There'll be more support from minor parties and independents. More will be elected."

A plain threat and it will be interesting how the major parties - already confused about who they are and who they represent - respond. Coal miners or climate? History wars or gender wars? Going nuclear or going republican?

Disenchantment with politics is not new. Australians have long felt let down by the political class. In a breakthrough move, the teal independent candidates were widely seen in 2022 as a viable alternative.

Clearly they confound the major parties and the Liberal Party wants the seats back and don't want to lose any more. But it might not be up to them.

Each one of the teals has been described as the perfect Liberal candidate: young, successful articulate women. The kind of woman who has been having a tough time getting Liberal preselection.

Liberals have described the teals as "ALP stooges", or a Labor Party front, and the Prime Minister has not exactly been helpful with crossbench staffing numbers.

The teals themselves are very aware they now represent former "blue ribbon" electorates, but as the Election Study shows, the electorates are changing.

The study also shows four out of five of the people who voted for the teals were usually Greens and Labor voters, tactically trying to toss out the Liberal incumbent.

Having achieved that aim, what will happen to the teals in 2025, particularly as they don't have the lower house balance of power?

Could those voters could go back to the Greens and Labor? Or hang onto new found independence?

The next election campaign started on May 22.