Canberra's Civic stadium debate set to drag into 2023 and beyond as Andrew Barr mulls new plan

The Chief Minister has revealed his new vision for the premium city location: a 7000-8000-capacity, multi-purpose indoor venue mainly to be used for concerts and modelled on the Horden Pavilion in Sydney.

Another thought bubble in a long list of ideas over the past 13 years to fill the gaps in Canberra's events infrastructure plan.

It ticks a few boxes for the ACT government. Cheaper. Smaller. No design compromises. And a mid-sized arena that could attract more touring acts to the capital.

But in reality it's just the latest twist and turn along the journey, and it's a major blow to the consortium of Canberra industry leaders who launched a new push to build a Canberra entertainment precinct in Civic earlier this month.

Barr was seemingly receptive to the inverted bowl design at the time, which negated the need to move Parkes Way, but in the back of his mind he had been working on a different plan.

The Civic pool location, after all, is prime real estate. Putting a concert venue there would help fill the boots of city businesses, and help attract touring acts who currently bypass the capital because our biggest indoor arena has a ticket limit of 5000.

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The ACT Brumbies and Canberra Raiders, however, appear destined to be left out in the cold at Bruce, which is arguably the venue that needs the most urgent attention.

The problem now isn't that we're talking about a "Canberra pavilion". It's not even about the future of the Civic pool or the new stadium push.

The problem is this year appeared to be heading towards serious venue movement. Instead, we've stumbled our way to Christmas Eve with the same undies and socks under the tree.

While Tasmania has presented a full stadium business case and is on the verge of securing up to $350 million in federal funding to build in Hobart, we're still talking about thought bubbles.

The new stadium push sent their proposal to Prime Minister Anthony Albanese and has been the most coordinated approach to the project so far.

But instead of picking it up and running with it, we're now talking about a Horden Pavilion clone, which comes from the same wishlist that had a city stadium with a roof pegged as being built in the 2020s.

As it sits, we're so far off that goal that it's hard to see any genuine movement on a much-needed stadium until the mid 2030s.

How did we get here? The year started with so much promise when Canberra's event and sporting infrastructure became a federal election issue, and David Pocock and Zed Seselja waged a turf war.

It led to the AIS Arena getting $15 million in funding, even though it came two years too late. The venue has been closed since early 2020, and won't reopen until the first half of 2024. Four years of waiting for air conditioning and a fire-system upgrade.

Seselja wanted to invest in a smaller upgrade at Viking Park. Pocock wanted a Civic precinct with a stadium and state of the art convention centre.

When Pocock blew Seselja out of the water on election day, stadium optimists could see the light at the end of the tunnel. A federal Labor government ready to talk to an ACT Labor government with an independent Senator helping pull the strings. Finally!

Turns out it was about as likely as expecting to have all your Christmas shopping done by December 20.

A few months later, Barr sounded the death knell for a Civic stadium - his own idea. Too expensive, too complicated and a "dead space" most of the time given it would be used for 20 men's NRL and Super Rugby games and another six or so women's fixtures.

But what's that? The clunking of reindeer hooves on the Legislative Assembly? The Australian Professional Leagues officials delivered a present to Barr's team last week. Plans for an A-League Men's team, which Barr said was one of the missing pieces required for Civic stadium investment.

"I mean a new stadium really requires three teams to play out of it - Raiders, Brumbies and an A-League team in the summer to make it economically viable," Barr said in 2017.

So here we are with an A-League Men's team neatly wrapped up, but the field of dreams is stuck in the same era of the Canberra Cosmos.

Stadiums are big issues and require big spending. The projected cost of a Civic venue has blown out from $350 million in the early 2010s to somewhere between $500-$700 million now.

No one expects a knee-jerk commitment, and there are legitimate questions about the size of the site and how many Canberrans want it.

Tasmania is providing an interesting case study for those questions. They're pursuing their own plans as they prepare to be an AFL expansion location, but the federal government is paying hardball after being asked to invest $350 million, and polling shows most in Hobart are against it.

The divide is similar in Canberra. It has been suggested support for a city stadium is about 50-50 with Canberrans, and to be a stadium befitting of the location it would definitely need federal support.

There are also legitimate questions about Canberra's capacity to support (both membership/fan wise and financially) the NRL (men's and women's), Super Rugby (men's and women's), AFL (men's and women's), A-League (men's and women's), basketball (men's and women's) and cricket (men's and women's) at the elite level.

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The main issue most are wrestling with is the fact there's still nothing to show for all the hope and talk. Not that it would come as a surprise, because it's been written and spoken about so often.

How long can the ACT government wait to make the first significant move? The ducks seem to be lined up, irrespective of whether a stadium deal is done for the city, Bruce or Exhibition Park.

There's a federal government they're capable of having productive discussions with - again, whether that be for an AIS precinct redevelopment or funding for the city. There's Pocock, who's keen to strike a city funding deal to end decades of underinvestment in the capital. There's Barr, who, despite all the delays, has been the stadium's biggest supporter since his sport minister days.

The looming arrival of a men's A-League team may push the project along. (Although, talk of an A-League licence has been running even longer than the stadium debate, so scepticism is fair enough.)

The NBL's plans to revive the Canberra Cannons might feed into the Canberra pavilion discussions, given Barr has said it could host WNBL finals for the Capitals.

In the meantime, we wait. Again. Will 2023 be the year of change? The year of hope? The year of a legitimate plan with a realistic timeframe and funding sorted? Santa might need a bigger sack.

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