While incremental improvements in Australia's relationship with China are welcome, the reality is the evolving situation in our region is extremely fluid. Defence and national security must remain one of the government's highest priorities.
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This week's simulated attack on Taiwan by at least 71 Chinese aircraft, including fighter jets and drones, is a reminder of just how volatile the environment in the South China Sea has become.
Such incursions carry a high risk of operational error, especially when Taipei responds in kind, and the possibility that an accident or a misunderstanding might trigger actual hostilities can never be ruled out.
This week's "exercise" which lasted almost 24 hours was in response to the defence spending bill recently passed by the US Congress. The bill approved increased defence and security cooperation with Taiwan. It also signed off on enhanced cooperation with India, a key member of the Quad alliance, on defence technology, readiness and logistics.
The bill specifically referred to China as "a strategic challenge".
China, which views such defensive measures by the democracies as threats, responded with the large-scale military exercise to send a message to Washington and the West that it was not happy.
This week's mobilisation of Chinese military assets came just under two months after Beijing responded to Nancy Pelosi's visit to Taipei with live fire military exercises near the island.
It can hardly be a coincidence that at the same time Beijing was rattling its sabre in the Taiwan Straits on Monday, North Korea used five drones to penetrate South Korean airspace, forcing Seoul to scramble attack helicopters and fighter jets.
North Korea, which has been scaling up its missile launches and other weapons programs, is aligned with both Beijing and Moscow. It is supplying "significant" numbers of artillery shells to Russia for use in the war in Ukraine.
China and Russia have both used their positions as permanent members of the UN Security Council to protect Pyongyang from further sanctions in the wake of numerous acts of aggression.
In November, China's ambassador to the UN Zhang Jun accused the US of "unilaterally playing up tensions and confrontation" on the Korean peninsula.
North Korea had fired artillery shells, flown aircraft close to the demarcation line, and launched multiple rockets to protest the resumption of joint military exercises by US and North Korean armed forces after a five-year hiatus. The annual exercises had been scrapped by Donald Trump in 2018. He said they were "provocative".
The rising tensions in the Indo Pacific must be viewed against the reality of Beijing's unprecedented military build up. China, which already has a 348-ship navy, including a recently launched 85,000 tonne aircraft carrier, is predicted to build almost half as many again by 2040. It is also committed to dramatically increasing its nuclear stockpile which is tipped to grow from 272 in 2021 to at least 1000 by 2030 and 1500 by 2035.
Concerns about China's growing might have sparked a mini-arms race in the region and prompted the Australian government to enter into an agreement to acquire nuclear submarines through AUKUS and to strengthen its defence ties with India, America and Japan through the Quad.
While Beijing has predictably criticised these defensive measures as targeted against China's interests the truth is they, and this country's refusal to be bullied and intimidated, are the obvious reason for the recent thaw.
The Albanese government must stay the course.
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