Ukraine and its people deserve all the support that they need

This full-scale invasion attempt started with what were arguably the most ridiculous and shambolic convoys in history. Up to 64km of under-fuelled tanks used the public road system to enter from the north (and east and south) in an attempt to take the capital city of Kyiv in three days.

Having explicitly told NATO, the US and the world that amassing many Russian battalions on the border (and in Belarus to Ukraine's north west) in late 2021 was for the purpose of exercises, even their own troops didn't believe they were about to create new war zones and so continued selling (stolen) diesel from their vehicles to civilians to partly make up for their lousy pay. Everyone all the way to the top of the hierarchy appears to be taking a cut of Russian military spending in one way or another, so of course the troops themselves will want to do it too.

That partly explains the fuel issues, but not the use of roads, which was potentially related to the Winter Olympics in Beijing.

One theory goes that Vladimir Putin held off with the invasion until his "special friend", and one of the south eastern neighbours, had finished hosting their big party before attempting to destroy and conquer the neighbour to the south west. However, the ground was not frozen hard enough for tanks and self-propelled gun and missile systems to go off-road without getting stuck (although several did attempt to go cross country or try to destroy crop fields and did get stuck).

In terms of response, some bureaucracies like Formula 1 took what felt like an eternity to cancel the Russian Grand Prix, while other sporting bodies were quick to take the decision to cancel events or exclude Russian representation in their competitions.

In reality it was less than 36 hours, but being close to last instead of first (and about a day behind the Haas team's announcements it was dropping its Russian sponsor and its Russian didn't-realise-he-was-a-pay-driver, and also after drivers like four-time World Champion Sebastian Vettel stating he would not go to the 2022 Russian Grand Prix if it was held) made Formula 1, in my view, look like they were unwilling to take any action that might cost them money, in the same way they were very unwilling to take the same actions as other sporting bodies and avoid South Africa during Apartheid.

The longer this war goes for though, the longer it looks like going for.

If you ask geopolitical strategist Peter Zeihan, "the Russians feel that they are fighting for their existential existence, and because of their demographic collapse, they are". He also says this is Russia's ninth military expansion since 1992. They are trying to get their forward defensive positions back to the geographical strongholds they controlled in the Soviet era, and so Ukraine is just another country in the way of that strategy with Moldova, Romania, Poland and the Baltic states also on the list if Russia somehow succeeds, (which also appears less and less likely as time passes and their weaknesses in capability show). So if Russia continues this defensive strategy of going on the offensive it will eventually mean direct conflict with NATO, which means activating NATO's Article 5 (an attack on one is an attack on all).

Whether Russia gets that far or not, there are multiple reasons why the West absolutely should be supporting Ukraine. But I believe the biggest one is in the Budapest Memorandum on Security Assurances signed on December 5, 1994.

In short, in exchange for financial support and giving up their nuclear weapons to Russia, Russia, the US and the UK agreed to recognise the sovereignty of Kazakhstan, Belarus and Ukraine, to refrain from the use of threat or force against any of them, to seek immediate UN Security Council action to assist them if they are attacked, and several other promises of non-aggression, non-coercion and consultation that Russia has broken.

As such, the US, UK, some others like France and China who gave weaker assurances later, and their allies, are obliged to help Ukraine resist this or any other invasion.