When Reserve Bank of Australia governor Philip Lowe addresses business leaders in Sydney on Wednesday, the one question everyone will want answered is: how much higher will interest rates go?
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
In announcing the 10th successive hike in the official cash rate on Tuesday, Dr Lowe made it clear that the central bank thought it had more work to do to bring inflation down.
"The board expects that further tightening of monetary policy will be needed," the RBA boss said.
If there was any doubt about how serious the central bank is about taming price pressures in the economy, the governor added that RBA board was "resolute in its determination to return inflation to target and will do what is necessary to achieve that".
While not as dramatic as the declaration by European Centra Bank president Mario Draghi at the height of the euro crisis that the ECB would do "whatever it takes to preserve the euro", it was a clear statement of the RBA's intent to crush inflation.
![Philip Lowe still thinks the RBA can steer the country through a narrow path to suppress inflation. Picture by Elesa Kurtz Philip Lowe still thinks the RBA can steer the country through a narrow path to suppress inflation. Picture by Elesa Kurtz](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/8WgcxeQ6swJGymJT6BMGEL/8f7b3bfd-5299-433f-b98d-5c0e561bd67b.jpg/r0_240_4159_2578_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
Economists think at least one more rate hike is on the cards and many think another two is likely.
Dr Lowe warns that if high inflation is allowed to persist, bringing it down later would be very costly and would involve even higher interest rates and unemployment.
The problem is that in trying to drive inflation down the central bank runs an increased risk of tumbling the economy into recession.
Dr Lowe still thinks the RBA can steer the country through a narrow path to suppress inflation without causing a "hard landing".
READ MORE:
But the governor's language indicates that the central bank won't shirk the issue if taming inflation involves sending the economy reeling. Plenty of households probably already feel that things are dire.
Rising interest rates are compounding the financial pressure families are under from high inflation. According to a National Bank survey, about 40 per cent of households are in some degree of financial difficulty and that proportion is set to increase this year as more than 800,000 mortgages flip from fixed to variable rates.
The federal government is promising "responsible" living cost relief in the May budget but it is likely to be limited lest it add to the inflation problem.
The brutal reality is that rates will stay up until sufficient households feel enough pain to cut back their spending. Large savings and capital gains from soaring house prices have given some much more financial padding than others.
Nonetheless, Dr Lowe has left the Reserve Bank with some wriggle room by suggesting that "when and how much further interest rates need to increase" is an open question, raising the possibility of a rate pause if trends in inflation, consumer spending, employment and the global economy go as the RBA hopes.
For most, that cannot come soon enough.