John Warhurst | Can the Canberra Liberals win back 'their' ACT Senate seat?

His high reputation stems not just from the quality of his input but because he holds a key vote. The Albanese government now needs the Greens plus two others to pass its legislation in the Senate. Pocock's position is a privileged one, but he is making the most of it.

Yet he is effectively holding a "Liberal" seat. The huge challenge for the ACT Liberals is to win it back.

The federal Liberals' 2022 election review by Brian Loughnane and Senator Jane Hume set the scene by addressing why the previous government lost and what it needs to do to regain office. Their diagnosis and advice apply generally as well as specifically to reclaiming an ACT senate seat.

The main thing which has changed since the last election is that one of the most unpopular party leaders in Australian history, Scott Morrison, has been replaced by Peter Dutton. Morrison was a major contributor to the loss of seats, making the Liberal brand a drag on the vote.

The report also noted that Liberal values failed to adequately represent the values and priorities of women in modern Australia.

It noted that many losing members were personally popular, but that some sitting members were diverted by senior parliamentary responsibilities. Furthermore, some local Liberal members did not make full use of the advantages of incumbency.

It commented that the unity and discipline of the party should be improved. Party membership and the number of volunteers should be increased.

The latter point reflected the fact that teal independents, such as Pocock, outperformed the Liberals, like former senator Zed Seselja, occupying safe seats in the number and enthusiasm of campaign volunteers.

The review advocated that the new teal independent seats should be "vigorously contested". Candidates should be sought with strong community ties to match an obvious strength of the independents.

Furthermore, the party organisation should prepare for the next election by monitoring the voting record of the teal MPs, by following their social media and by examining any other comments they make. Clearly, with the next campaign in mind, this would prepare the ground for an intense attack on them.

Presumably the local ACT Liberal branch, responsible for first choosing the candidate to run against Pocock and then for mobilising resources for the campaign itself, has taken this advice on board and is already thinking about how to campaign.

There are at least four moving parts in trying to come to grips with this question. They include the performance of the Albanese government, of the Dutton opposition, of Pocock himself, and the quality of the ACT campaign against him.

There are associated matters which may play a role, including the general performance of the teals (some of which may rub off on Pocock), the financial resources available to Pocock from donors such as Climate 200, and the economic and social circumstances in which the 2025 federal election is held.

Some of these matters are not things that the ACT Liberals can do much about. Federal politics will take its course. Albanese leads Dutton comfortably in the polls, though issues such as cost of living are looming challenges for the government. Pocock himself marches on with aplomb.

The federal Liberal brand has not changed markedly. The dead weight of Morrison has gone, but the conservative image of Dutton has not changed the public projection of the party's values much at all.

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There is every indication that the independents' campaign, including supporting elements such as Climate 200, will be just as strong in 2025. The community independents and the "Voices of" movement across the country are maintaining their determination and momentum.

Political parties don't change their spots easily even in the face of rejection by voters. The ACT Liberals don't give the impression of being ready for a full facelift. They remain a conservative outfit shaped by factional warfare. The party's internal elections since May 2022 don't appear to have changed the party much. Moderates may have been encouraged somewhat, but they have not been empowered.

So what about the local Liberal senate campaign in 2025?

One option is to concentrate on strengthening the membership and financial resources of the local party, while hoping the national political dynamics swing back in its favour. This would enable it to run an energetic local campaign, though with a traditional looking candidate, either Seselja again or a "look alike". They may well do this, perhaps with the twist of a female candidate.

The second option is to try something quite different, and to look for a centre right-leaning, but moderate, community independent, preferably a woman and probably someone not yet in the party.

This would mean repositioning the party, eating some humble pie, and convincing a high-profile community figure to take the plunge. The new candidate would need to be a risk-taker who would be willing to devote 12 months of their life to a most unlikely cause. The model would be Pocock and the other teal independents. But they are a rare commodity.

Defeating Pocock, who has emerged as a remarkably competent senator, would test the best political outfit. There is no sign yet that the ACT Liberals can do it.