Reserve Bank of Australia holds interest rates but governor Philip Lowe warns of further 'tightening'

While the Reserve Bank of Australia has decided on a much-hoped-for interest rate pause, there is a sting in the accompanying comments from governor Philip Lowe. With the words that "some further tightening of monetary policy may well be needed", Dr Lowe pretty much guaranteed that the indebted will be anything but relaxed and comfortable come RBA meeting days.

As rate pauses go, this was a heavily qualified one.

Yes, the central bank thinks it has already done a lot to tighten monetary policy and sees evidence enough that household spending, which is the biggest component of demand in the economy, is substantially slowing.

But there is much about the economy that still has it concerned.

Although inflation appears to be coming down overall, there are significant pockets of strong price pressures, not least rents. Very tight rental markets around the country are not only a cause of distress for many, but any solution seems a long way off. Combine that with a high migrant intake and housing appears set to be a source of inflation for a sustained period ahead.

The Reserve Bank is also wary of the risk that the tight labour market could generate a dangerous upward spiral of prices and wages. There has been no sign yet that something like this is developing. Even with unemployment at a near 50-year low of 3.5 per cent, the evidence so far is that pay gains have been moderate, averaging less than 4 per cent.

Unions are pushing for a 7 per cent pay rise for workers on the minimum wage and the federal governrment has made a submission to the Fair Work Commission asking for an increase that ensures that are not going backwards.

But there are reasons to think a wage-price spiral will not develop. The economy is slowing and employers are becoming less bullish about the outlook. The number of job vacancies, though still high, is easing. As a result, employment is expected to slow and the unemployment rate to rise.

Added to this, the number of workers entering the country has surged following the pandemic, helping relieve skills shortages.

But even if wages grow only moderately and inflation continues to decline, much could still go wrong as the RBA tries to navigate the economy to a so-called soft landing.

As has become apparent in the United States and Europe, the higher interest rates go, the more likely it is that banks or other financial institutions that have a risky business model or are poorly managed will go under.

Even though Australian banks are more heavily regulated and well-capitalised than many of their international peers, the interconnected nature of the global financial system means they would not necessarily be immune to shocks like further bank failures.

This alludes to another reason why some economists think Australia's interest rates will need to rise further - to prevent a significant depreciation of the dollar.

As the differential in interest rates between Australia and other major countries widens, the exchange rate comes under increasing pressure. And the weaker the dollar, the more expensive imports become, adding to price pressures.

There is a lot for the RBA and borrowers to consider.