Amid the bluster and fanfare of the electric vehicle strategy launched by the federal government this week, two key elements needed to support it remained stuck in the slow lane, like a smoky old Valiant running on five cylinders.
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The federal transport department's all-important fuel efficiency standard has gone back to the consultation phase which will prolong its introduction further, while the equally important fuel standards study - which determines our future fuel quality - is still sitting in limbo in the draft regulatory impact stage.
Meanwhile, the car companies' recent outcomes from their "voluntary" emissions standards testing revealed how poorly many of Australia's best-selling models - with five of the 10 best-selling vehicles in the country being twin-cab diesel utes - perform against pre-determined benchmarks.
All the key stakeholders to the national EV strategy are urging the government to act, and quickly, on both fuel standards and emissions/efficiency.
![An emissions testing rig, part of an Australian Automobile Association program which will begin in the next few months. Picture supplied An emissions testing rig, part of an Australian Automobile Association program which will begin in the next few months. Picture supplied](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/ZBtA3uhzm786CWHKXPpjK4/35127bb0-d34a-4e69-85e6-db7ecd5ba993.jpg/r0_99_1933_1186_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
The two issues are intertwined because without assurances of high quality, low-sulphur petrol, Australian vehicles won't get access to the very best engine technology, which in turn lowers internal combustion emissions.
Government progress on both these key issues has been painfully slow. Way back in 2015, the Liberal-Coalition government convened a ministerial forum on vehicle emissions. Three draft proposals were tabled, one of which was "the introduction of new fuel efficiency standards". Paul Fletcher, the federal minister at the time, later declared this was a "priority" for the government.
Eight years on and the talking and consulting goes on. Industry insiders familiar with government processes say that even with a freshly accelerated timetable, it will be the first quarter of 2024 before any draft legislation on fuel efficiency would be ready.
Then it faces the test of parliamentary debate and potential amendment. In between times, the various industry lobbyists will be applying their own leverage.
In the national EV strategy release documents on Wednesday, the timetable for a fuel efficiency standard was carefully muted. The commitment was "to finalise details in coming months". So in a nutshell, there's yet more detail to be worked through - after more than eight years of deliberation - before legislation is developed.
The fuel efficiency consultation paper was dated April 19 - the same date as the national electric vehicle strategy was revealed - yet no preferred approach was provided. Instead, three approaches were served up on emission caps: the so-called "cautious start", the "start strong" and the "straight line" approaches.
![A Honda Jazz fitted with the "real world" emissions testing rig. Picture supplied A Honda Jazz fitted with the "real world" emissions testing rig. Picture supplied](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/ZBtA3uhzm786CWHKXPpjK4/9e7f11ac-9308-4be3-9717-cb9984a6d464.jpg/r0_0_1927_1284_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
And so many complicated questions remained unresolved, from the timeframes which should be established, to the technical targets, and the "off-cycle" credits earned by big-selling car companies such as Toyota which still allows them to sell heavier SUVs and twin-cab utes, but offset them against volume hybrid sales.
The department's scoping document has urged a rapid kick-off, acknowledging that "the longer the delay ... the more Australian will pay in fuel costs".
However, it also firmly pushed the caution button to manage public expectations, stating "government best practice requires a period of time for business to implement new policies and for government to undertake any targeted education on how to comply with new legislation".
"Passage of legislation through the Australian Parliament can also be a lengthy process," it says.
"Delays in the passage of legislation implementing a [standard] could impact on commencement dates, as well as how aggressive emissions reductions can be implemented."
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In calculating emissions, Australia's regulators treat its passenger cars and light SUVs as one job lot (known as the MA category) and its popular heavy SUVs and light commercials (known as the MC + NA category) as another.
Quite correctly, the NRMA firmly believes Australia should align its standards with those of the US, which has far similar driving conditions to us than those of Europe or Japan. Unlike Europe, we drive heavier vehicles (lots of MCs and NAs), we tow things (a lot), and in regional areas we drive long distances.
The US has had CAFE (corporate average fuel economy) standards - basically pre-determined, fleetwide-average fuel efficiency targets for each vehicle brand - since 1975. It has been a moderately successful tool but has done little to dampen the US consumer appetite for big, heavy pick-up trucks.
Europe has already vaulted far ahead of Australia on vehicle emission controls. After years of falling behind, we can't catch them without enormous upheaval: the so-called "strong start" option. The car industry lobby would fiercely oppose it and consumers would be disadvantaged.
![Vehicle emissions and fuel quality are linked. Picture supplied Vehicle emissions and fuel quality are linked. Picture supplied](/images/transform/v1/crop/frm/ZBtA3uhzm786CWHKXPpjK4/287d8e9f-a813-4fe6-9a0f-608151e81fc6.jpg/r0_22_4932_3288_w1200_h678_fmax.jpg)
But the US is shifting quickly, demonstrating a fresh resolve to make fast inroads into the emissions issue. Only last week, the Biden administration proposed a tough new set of new Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) measures set to arrive in 2027.
The fresh standard for US emissions will be based on the size and type of vehicle being built (known as the "footprint" approach).
Analysts say these new rules are so tough that within nine years, two-thirds of the new vehicles sold in the US will need to be electric.
That means huge domestic vehicle builders like General Motors and Ford need to churn out as many electric vehicles - preferably pick-up trucks like the Ford 150 Lightning because that's the market preference - as they possibly can.
These will be predominantly left-hand drive models, targeting the US domestic market. Production for tiny, right-hand drive markets like Australia will be a low priority.
So uncertainty will dog the complexion of Australia's new motoring landscape for 12 months or more, as the smoky old Valiant of bureaucracy keeps chugging along.