Just ahead of the Indigenous Voice to Parliament campaign hitting full swing, the official "yes" campaign is significantly outspending the more targeted "no" campaign, which is gaining traction in polls but admits it is "struggling" to engage younger people.
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The Australian government and the Australian Electoral Commission are spending even bigger sums on Facebook and Instagram as they urge voters to "be ready" to engage with the referendum "conversation". In the AEC's case, it is a request to enrol or update details.
The non-traditional media push, regarded as "massively" important by the "no" camp, comes as the latest Newspoll shows support for the Voice has dropped to just 46 per cent, with a further 11 per cent undecided on how they will vote in the likely October referendum.
"We've seen in the last couple of elections, and also in America as well, in Britain and other places where you got this social media, this non-traditional media, has a lot of influence on people, especially young people," prominent "no" advocate Warren Mundine told The Canberra Times.
The referendum-establishing constitutional alteration legislation is expected to pass the Senate this month, while the popular vote is tipped to happen in October. Campaigning is expected to take off from late June.
This masthead has analysed official paid "yes" and "no" campaign ads on Meta platforms as as undecided voters are sought. It is acknowledged there is also official campaigning on traditional media and unofficial campaigning on social media, including often contentious or non-factual meme sharing.
The current standout, according to Meta's Ad Library, is that the official "yes" camp, Yes 23, is now outspending the official "no" opposition, Fair Australia. Meanwhile, the Australian government is spending thousands of dollars on a video post in 17 languages to encourage voters to "be ready" by visiting an official government Voice website.
"Conversations with everyday Australians will be key to the success of this referendum," a Yes 23 campaign spokesperson said. "Community engagement will take many forms, whether that be face-to-face discussions at community forums or providing information to people online and through social media."
On Facebook and Instagram, the Yes 23 campaign alliance - which is listed as a "non-profit organisation" - is the sixth top advertiser over the past week, spending $22,277 on 77 ads, and the 12th over the past 30 days spending $42,069 on 127 ads. It has spent more than $4000 in the past day alone on the ads.
Fair Australia - which is listed as a "political organisation" and is run by conservative lobby group Advance - is the 17th top advertiser over the past week, spending $6700 on 17 ads, and is the 11th top advertiser over the past 30 days spending $44,444 on 31 ads. It has spent $1030 in the past day.
"They have more money than the Bank of England at the moment. We don't have as much. We still don't have DGR [deductible gift recipient] status," Mr Mundine said.
DGR status encourages fundraising by allowing donations of more than $2 to be tax-deductible. The hold-up is putting a pause on "promises of money" according to Mr Mundine, although he did not appear too worried.
"Look at the polling. The more difficult they make it for us, the more we seem to get better polling," he said.
To pass a referendum in Australia, the double whammy of a majority plus a majority of states is needed. The "no" campaign's main task is to pick up three states. It is targeting the states it believes it can win: Queensland, Western Australia, South Australia and Tasmania. There is now confidence emerging about a majority of people as well.
The "yes" side needs to hold at least four states.
The "no" side has an obvious focus on Queensland and West Australian voters while the "yes" side appears to firm up support in the larger states NSW and Victoria.
"We're focused on reaching all Australians with our positive message about why constitutional recognition is important and how it will deliver practical outcomes for Indigenous people by giving them a say on matters that affect them," a Yes 23 spokesperson said.
The "yes" ads are positive and focus on the message of unity and belonging, while the "no" ads are negative in nature, but constrained in imagery and message.
Mr Mundine insists they are factual and are "not causing division". Last month, the "no" campaign had to delete the image and quote of an Indigenous man who was incorrectly claimed as the grandson of land rights activist Vincent Lingiari.
"I do go to bed every night thinking about how this campaign can be very easily hijacked," Mr Mundine said.
The Voice Newspoll found younger voters, and the city-based, university educated, are more likely to support the proposition.
"We are struggling. I think the word is struggling [to get young people]. We admit that," Mr Mundine said. "We have a goal here to treat them as sensible, intelligent kids and have that conversation with them and then go from there."
The "yes" ads running with sporting endorsement are seen by younger people and by the states where that code is more popular. AFL ads have a larger Victorian set of eyes on them, but the West Coast Eagles' endorsement had a much larger WA audience.
