ACT government wants to build new $500 million Canberra Stadium by 2033

But you might have to forgive me for not doing cartwheels, yet. We've had that timeline before, and a worldwide tour of stadiums over the past 14 years has landed us back in the same place we started: Bruce.

Somewhere along the way, ACT Chief Minister Andrew Barr sidelined his own pursuit of a stadium in the city, wary of ballooning cost and hidden problem red flags he says kept popping up. All of a sudden, the city location he previously described as a necessity was referred to as a "billion-dollar folly".

Putting aside the disingenuous billion-dollar description (Barr's own feasibility study says it would cost $580 million), is the decision to partner with the Australian Sports Commission on a AIS precinct rebuild a reason to celebrate, or do we need to drown our Civic-dreaming sorrows?

The steam appears to have well and truly run out of the train to Civic. There have been attempts over the past six months to put it back on Barr's agenda, but he was already deep into plans with the commission and a new precinct at Bruce.

And if we look back and reflect on every twist and turn of the stadium saga, it's hard to suggest that anyone didn't see this day coming.

Barr was once the champion of the Civic stadium idea before doing a significant flip less than 12 months ago, despite being armed with another feasibility report (more on that later) giving him the green light to go ahead.

It is true there are many supporters of the building (or rebuilding) of a stadium at Bruce. Most were on board because it appeared to be the cheapest option, and therefore would save taxpayer cash.

The ACT government's new infrastructure plan, published on Thursday, expects a "new or significantly enhanced" stadium at Bruce to cost more than $500 million.

So, a difference of around $80 million, depending on what bells and whistles you choose on both location options. Or, in government money terms, about the same amount wasted on an abandoned "deficient' HR project.

Both have background costs associated. Moving Parkes Way in the city. Building light rail to Bruce. Building rubble, sewerage lines and contaminated soil in the city. Needing to strike a deal with the commission at Bruce.

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Barr says he consulted with stadium users - the NRL and the Canberra Raiders, and Super Rugby and the ACT Brumbies. The stadium users say consultation was a box-ticking exercise, especially given they are - or were - united behind a Civic plan.

Barr says we need a 30,000-seat stadium for international fixtures (like the women's World Cup, which Barr said was too expensive to be a part of), despite the Brumbies and Raiders reaching the 24,000-seat capacity at the existing venue just a handful of times over the past 20 years.

Barr says the stadium location changed in part due to pressure on housing and the need for a mixed-use precinct. None of those details are in the infrastructure plan.

Barr says swimming pool contamination, sewerage pipes and old building rubble impact the ability to excavate the Civic pool site. Again, those details are missing from the infrastructure plan, or any of the five feasibility studies since 2009 (with another $300,000 study to be conducted within the next 18 months).

In fact, most of the new infrastructure plan talked about why Civic was a bad option, rather than why Bruce was a good option. Like impacts on Friday-night traffic in the city.

How many Friday night games did the Raiders and Brumbies have scheduled this year? Four. Four nights out of 365 in a year. Four.

And so we come to today. A place we've been before, with a stadium promise on the table and an uncertain future ahead.

When Barr first flagged the urgent need for a new stadium in 2009, he set a timeline for it to be built by 2020. That was revised to the mid 2020s. Then reset for before 2030. And now a 2033 target.

Understandably, most in Canberra are tired of the debate and have reached a point of "I'll believe it when I see it".

The frustration - which has been at perhaps its highest point in recent months - has almost given way to acceptance that it's Bruce or bust.

Part of the problem has been a lack of information. If the Raiders, Brumbies and co were aware of the significant red flags Barr says are in Civic, they might have already jumped on board the Bruce bus.

In the coming days, weeks or years, they will probably do just that. Because, to be fair, there aren't any other options.

To Barr's credit, he has been the one pushing the stadium barrow all of these years. Yes, he has changed plans more times than we can count. But he has still pushed it along to get to the latest iteration.

Until now, misdirection has been used to put lipstick on the Bruce pig. Some tried to offer solutions to the Civic site issues, but Barr had already moved on to focus on Bruce.

Would those solutions flagged in a plan sent to Barr and Prime Minister Anthony Albanese, among others, have worked? We'll never know, because they didn't make it out of the government's idea files.

For most of the past year the debate has been about how to use the Civic pool site. A stadium, a convention centre, an indoor concert pavilion or a pool. Now none of those appear as options, with the pool slated for Commonwealth Park, the convention centre and concert pavilion pegged for London Circuit and the stadium shifted to Bruce (and if it doesn't fit there, Exhibition Park).

The stadium location topic has been fierce. Most recently, the NRL has targeted Barr for a lack of inaction, and Barr hit back about the NRL's lack of investment.

The Raiders and Brumbies are too scared to weigh in and of being too critical about delays and the decision to stay at Bruce because they need government funding to survive.

"It's still 10 years away, and I don't know if Canberra Stadium will last that long," one text message said on Thursday morning.

For a long time, this issue has been pegged as you're either with Barr, or against him. It doesn't have to be this way. Civic dreamers can be turned into Bruce believers.

If Bruce is the best location for a new stadium, then teams and fans will jump on board. The stumbling block so far has been the reasons given for ditching Civic haven't married up with public information in the five feasibility studies and the intel Barr personally gathered on his worldwide tour of Melbourne, Perth, Adelaide, Brisbane, Parramatta, Dunedin, Wellington, Singapore and the United States.

Commonwealth Park looms as the last-chance saloon for a stadium in the city. There have been rumblings for weeks about an approach to the federal government and the National Capital Authority about a partnership to get it done.

Whether Barr would agree to it after so intently changing his vision from Civic to Bruce is another matter.

The challenge now is to try to unite a significantly divided sporting community. If Civic is truly dead, for the right reasons, then maybe it's time to move on. If Bruce is the answer, then so be it.

Barr has set a 10-year timeline, like he has done before, with hope work would be complete sooner. That depends on a range of factors, but if it sticks to 10 years then it will be a total of 24 years of planning, preparation and construction.

Let's just hope we don't look back in 30 years and say the hard options would have been the best option.

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