Inflation has passed its peak but signs it may linger could add complexity to the impending cash rate decision.
Subscribe now for unlimited access.
or signup to continue reading
A future-looking measure of the inflation picture shows consumer prices growing at a faster clip in July compared to the previous month.
The Melbourne Institute's inflation gauge, which uses the same techniques to measure price change movements as the official Australian Bureau of Statistics dataset, grew by 0.8 per cent in July, up from 0.1 per cent in June.
On an annual basis, the gauge continued moderating, growing by 5.4 per cent compared to 5.7 per cent in June.
The July change was driven by a sharp 13.96 per cent jump in utilities, with this increase counterbalanced by price falls in childcare and other items.
IFM Investors economist Alex Joiner said the monthly rebound in the Melbourne Institute gauge suggested the pace of inflation was not in freefall, but gradually moderating.
"One for those looking for the RBA to hike tomorrow - uncertainty around the inflation outlook persists a little more in Australia than elsewhere," he said.
The Reserve Bank board is due to meet for its August decision on Tuesday.
Official data has prices growing slower and consumer activity weakening, but a persistently strong jobs market has helped keep another hike in play.
The Australian Bureau of Statistics inflation numbers will be the pivotal piece of information leading into the meeting, with the official index sinking to six per cent in the June quarter from seven per cent through to March.
The trimmed mean, the RBA's preferred measure of core inflation, also moderated to 5.9 per cent annually in the June quarter from 6.6 per cent in March.
Both numbers came in below the RBA's predictions.
The latest flow of economic data has split economists at the major banks, with Commonwealth Bank and Westpac still foreseeing another 25 basis point hike in August.
Economists from NAB and ANZ expect the RBA to stay on hold, with interest rate markets predicting a 10 per cent chance of a hike on Tuesday.
The RBA shadow board, made up of macroeconomists from the Australian National University, is narrowly leaning towards a pause.
Higher interest rates and cost of living pressures are starting to weigh on savers, with monthly household deposit statistics from the financial safety regulator showing the first fall since May 2021.
Household deposits as tracked by the Australian Prudential Regulation Authority sunk 0.56 per cent, or $7.76 billion, in June, suggesting Australians are starting to chew into their savings.
Surveying by comparison site Canstar revealed a two-speed savings environment, however, with households actually more committed than last year to squirreling money away for a major purchase.
Canstar's financial services group executive Steve Mickenbecker said mortgage holders, who have been enduring a sharp uptick in their monthly repayments as interest rates track higher, fell into two camps.
One was clearly in survival mode and funnelling any extra money into their emergency fund, while a second was taking the tighter financial conditions in stride and saving for a holiday or other major purchase.
"For some borrowers, interest rate increases have been water off a duck's back, while others are in severe stress," Mr Mickenbecker said
Australian private sector credit also grew weakly in June, lifting 0.2 per cent over the month.
Australian Associated Press
